{"id":4348,"date":"2023-05-29T22:25:02","date_gmt":"2023-05-30T05:25:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/?p=4348"},"modified":"2023-05-29T22:25:02","modified_gmt":"2023-05-30T05:25:02","slug":"whatever-happened-to-adaptive-management","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/?p=4348","title":{"rendered":"Whatever Happened to Adaptive Management?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The big hype over the past several decades in the Central Valley has been Adaptive Management.\u00a0 <\/u><\/em><\/strong>Whatever happened to it?<\/u>\u00a0 Did we forget about it, or simply take it for granted?\u00a0 Did we rebrand it, morph it into something else?\u00a0 I wrote a \u201cwhite paper\u201d on the topic for CALFED over 20 years ago.\u00a0 My version was more about conducting experiments to address unknowns to help inform management decisions.<\/p>\n

The definitions immediately below are further refinements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adaptive management<\/em><\/strong>, also known as<\/em>\u00a0<\/em>adaptive resource management<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0<\/em>or<\/em>\u00a0<\/em>adaptive environmental assessment and management<\/em><\/strong>, is a structured,<\/em>\u00a0<\/em>iterative<\/em><\/a>\u00a0<\/em>process of robust<\/em>\u00a0<\/em>decision making<\/em><\/a>\u00a0<\/em>in the face of<\/em>\u00a0<\/em>uncertainty<\/em><\/a>, with an aim to reducing uncertainty over time via<\/em>\u00a0<\/em>system monitoring<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Above definition from Wikipedia<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adaptive management is a science-based, structured approach to improving our understanding of the problems and uncertainties of environmental and water management.\u00a0<\/em>(Older)<\/p>\n

Adaptive management provides a structured approach for adaptation in a context of rapid, often unprecedented, and unpredictable environmental change. Its success depends on support from the larger social, regulatory, and institutional context, or \u201cgovernance system.\u201d \u00a0\u00a0<\/em>(Newer)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Above definitions from <\/em>Delta Stewardship Council<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

The Delta Stewardship Council holds a forum every two years on Adaptive Management.\u00a0 This year, the forum delves into governance.\u00a0 <\/em>Presenters and participants are from Delta governments and those who would like to participate in Delta government.\u00a0 Topics include equitable<\/em> adaptation, governance systems and needs, and human dimensions of adaptation and governance.\u00a0 <\/em><\/p>\n

While that all is nice, it is not what I am looking for to manage the Delta ecosystem.\u00a0 I am more for the older <\/em>definition.\u00a0 We need answers.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Why are the Sacramento River and Delta so warm in the past decade or so?\u00a0 Is it all climate change, drought, and air temperatures?\u00a0 What has changed, and what can be done about it?\u00a0 Those are my questions.\u00a0 We need more adaptive management questions and some scientific experiments and monitoring.\u00a0 I have analyzed much of the available data and developed theories on causes (with supporting data and analyses), but theories need testing through controlled scientific study that can lead to effective changes: adaptive management.<\/p>\n

My theory is that we need 5000 to 10,000 cfs streamflow in the Sacramento River to keep it cool in summer.\u00a0 We need to test that theory to find out how much water is really needed, and how much, when, and where under highly variable air temperatures.<\/p>\n

Water managers have consistently opposed this kind of experiment.\u00a0 They refuse to use the water for this kind of experiment.\u00a0 And more importantly, they refuse to do an experiment that might produce the answer they don\u2019t want to be known, let alone supported by rigorous study: more flow is needed.<\/p>\n

On the contrary, there is a constant, built-in bias towards \u201cexperimenting\u201d with how little water one can use to achieve biological objectives.\u00a0 If too little water won\u2019t achieve the desired outcome, managers, and in some cases scientists, try modifying the threshold biological objectives.<\/p>\n

56o<\/sup>F was supposed to be fine for salmon spawning near Redding.\u00a0 In 2021 and 2022, agencies including Reclamation thought they could get away with 58-60o<\/sup>F for periods (they couldn\u2019t, Figure 1).\u00a0 It turns out from controlled experiments that 56o<\/sup>F was too warm \u2013 53o<\/sup>F is needed to keep eggs alive and well in the gravel.\u00a0 There is simply no getting around it.\u00a0 The agencies were experimenting with critically endangered salmon with poorly designed, un-scientific management strategies.<\/p>\n

In the Vernalis Adaptive Management Program in the early 2000s, ten years of experimenting found that relatively small increments of flow increase in the San Joaquin River from mid-April through mid-May, combined with minimum Delta exports by the state and federal water projects, did not dramatically increase survival of San Joaquin River juvenile salmon migrating downstream.\u00a0 The \u201cadaptive\u201d element of adaptive management did not thereafter increase the flows to see if that would improve juvenile survival.\u00a0 On the contrary, water managers declared that more flows don\u2019t help, and the Bureau of Reclamation since 2011 has serially ignored the flow requirements and export restrictions in mid-April through mid-May to which the rules were supposed to revert after the \u201cexperiment\u201d concluded.<\/p>\n

Here are some further questions that are begging for controlled scientific experiments, associated monitoring, and adaptive action:<\/p>\n

What will it take to keep the spring-summer Delta water temperature in key areas (such as the low salinity zone) below 72o<\/sup>F, at least through spring (Figure 2)?<\/p>\n

Is there something we can do to keep the Bay cooler in summer (Figure 3)?<\/p>\n

There is little doubt that improving these temperatures would improve conditions for fish.\u00a0 But the scientific community needs to push itself and water managers past built-in biases in order to evaluate the feasibility of such improvements.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Figure 1. 2021 and 2022 water temperatures in the Sacramento River above the mouth of Clear Creek near Redding. Red Line is safe level for salmon eggs.<\/p><\/div>\n

\"\"

Figure 2. April-June water temperatures in Sacramento River at Freeport in the north Delta in spring in past decade. Yellow line is critical level 68o<\/sup>F for migrating juvenile and adult salmon.<\/p><\/div>\n

\"\"

Figure 3. Water temperatures at the Benicia Bridge at the west end of Suisun Bay, 1998-2023. Red line is critical level for salmon survival during migration.<\/p><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The big hype over the past several decades in the Central Valley has been Adaptive Management.\u00a0 Whatever happened to it?\u00a0 Did we forget about it, or simply take it for granted?\u00a0 Did we rebrand it, morph it into something else?\u00a0 … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bay-delta","category-water-quality"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4348","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4348"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4348\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4355,"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4348\/revisions\/4355"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4348"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4348"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4348"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}