{"id":5070,"date":"2026-11-04T08:00:37","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T16:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/?p=5070"},"modified":"2026-11-04T06:24:24","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T14:24:24","slug":"brood-year-2026-sacramento-river-winter-run-salmon-prognosis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/?p=5070","title":{"rendered":"Brood Year 2026 Sacramento River Winter-Run Salmon Prognosis"},"content":{"rendered":"

Conditions in the Central Valley and Bay-Delta have been tough this fall for brood year 2026 winter-run and fall-run Chinook salmon. 1<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

Warm late-spring water temperatures and warm releases from Shasta Dam forced winter-run to spawn later in summer (Figure 1).\u00a0 That led to late emergence of fry in October into water with lethal water temperatures after Shasta\u2019s cold-water pool was exhausted.\u00a0 High volume releases from Shasta Reservoir in summer 2026 led to an earlier depletion of Shasta\u2019s cold-water pool than in 2020, a drier year (Figure 2). \u00a0This further stressed the winter-run spawn.<\/p>\n

Late emergence of fry has not only reduced their numbers, but has also delayed their downstream movement toward the Bay-Delta compared to 2025 (Figures 3 and 4).\u00a0 Water temperatures in October 2026 have been higher and streamflows lower in the lower Sacramento River than in 2025, more like drought year 2022 (Figure 5). The 2026 juvenile production will likely be less when compared to the strong juvenile production estimate (JPE) in 2025 (Figure 6).<\/p>\n

Ensuring minimal loss of the remaining production potential for juvenile BY-2026 winter-run would require the following actions:<\/p>\n