{"id":5085,"date":"2026-11-12T20:19:40","date_gmt":"2026-11-13T04:19:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/?p=5085"},"modified":"2026-11-12T20:20:32","modified_gmt":"2026-11-13T04:20:32","slug":"winter-run-salmon-2026-prognosis-november-11-2026-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/?p=5085","title":{"rendered":"Winter Run Salmon 2026 Prognosis \u2013 November 12, 2026 Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In my last update on winter-run salmon on <a href=\"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/?p=5070\">November 4, 2026<\/a>, I related what appeared to be a decline in winter-run fry production in 2026 compared to 2025.\u00a0 Spawner numbers were down more than 50% from 2025 (Figure 1) but up from the drought-depleted runs of 2023 and 2024. Red Bluff trap survey numbers were down about half as well (Figure 2 and 3), but again markedly higher than the drought-depleted numbers of 2023 and 2024.\u00a0 Of greatest concern was the low numbers of juvenile salmon reaching the lower Sacramento River one-hundred miles downstream of Red Bluff (see Figures 2 and 3) \u2013 that remains a concern. Numbers sampled in surveys near Sacramento remain near zero compared to significant numbers collected in 2025 in November (Figure 4).<\/p>\n<p>I had five recommendations in the earlier post to improve downstream movement and survival to and through the Delta.\u00a0 Here is scorecard of implementation to date:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Increasing the daily average lower Sacramento River streamflow through the fall to at least 7000 cfs at Wilkins Slough and 12,000 cfs at Freeport. \u2013<strong> <em>unchanged at 5000 cfs and 8,000 cfs, respectively<\/em>.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Providing a late fall pulse flow from Shasta Reservoir to the upper Sacramento River. <strong><em>Yet to occur.<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Minimizing fall Delta exports (no higher than 5000 cfs or 35% of Delta Inflow).<strong><em> Yes \u2013 remained so.<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Maintaining fall and winter Delta outflow at 10,000 cfs. <strong><em>Remains below 6,000 cfs.<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Closing the Delta Cross Channel for the remainder of fall. <strong><em>Remains open four days per week (normal operation through December).<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>These factors may change with storms over the next week.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_5086\" style=\"width: 594px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5086\" class=\"size-large wp-image-5086\" src=\"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image1-1-1024x682.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"584\" height=\"389\" srcset=\"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image1-1-1024x682.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image1-1-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image1-1-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image1-1-450x300.jpeg 450w, https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image1-1.jpeg 1430w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 584px) 100vw, 584px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-5086\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 1. Winter-run salmon escapement 1970-2026.<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"attachment_5087\" style=\"width: 481px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5087\" class=\"size-full wp-image-5087\" src=\"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"471\" height=\"601\" srcset=\"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image2.png 471w, https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image2-235x300.png 235w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 471px) 100vw, 471px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-5087\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 2. Screw trap catch of juvenile winter-run salmon at Red Bluff (RM 240) and Tisdale Weir (RM 120) 8\/27\/2025-5\/8, 2026.<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"attachment_5088\" style=\"width: 481px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5088\" class=\"size-full wp-image-5088\" src=\"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image3-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"471\" height=\"601\" srcset=\"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image3-1.png 471w, https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image3-1-235x300.png 235w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 471px) 100vw, 471px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-5088\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 3. Screw trap catch of juvenile winter-run salmon at Red Bluff (RM 240) and Tisdale Weir (RM 120) 8\/27-11\/8, 2026.<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"attachment_5090\" style=\"width: 485px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5090\" class=\"size-full wp-image-5090\" src=\"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image4-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"475\" height=\"587\" srcset=\"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image4-1.png 475w, https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image4-1-243x300.png 243w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 475px) 100vw, 475px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-5090\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 4. Seine and trawl catch of juvenile winter-run salmon near Sacramento (RM 80) 8\/5\/2025 to 7\/30-2026.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In my last update on winter-run salmon on November 4, 2026, I related what appeared to be a decline in winter-run fry production in 2026 compared to 2025.\u00a0 Spawner numbers were down more than 50% from 2025 (Figure 1) but &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/?p=5085\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[13,12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5085","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chinook","category-water-quality"],"jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5085","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5085"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5085\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5094,"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5085\/revisions\/5094"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5085"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5085"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/calsport.org\/fisheriesblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5085"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}