Sac River Salmon Opener a Bust

Posted on July 27, 2016 by Tom Cannon

The salmon season on the lower Sacramento River opened on July 16 with a yawn. As described in the Chico Enterprise, “the salmon aren’t biting”. One fish was confirmed caught. The article paraphrased an analysis by CDFW biologist Rob Titus, who referred to a plan to hold back releases from Shasta Reservoir to help juvenile salmon to migrate to the ocean. The article also stated that “the drought has had a deep impact on the fish population.”

CDFW could have told everyone to stay home. The river flow was too low and the water temperatures were too high for salmon to move up the river. In a July 2 post, I warned about the low flows and warm water. In the lower river, flow was only 4000 cfs. Water temperature reached 72-74°F on opening day (see chart below), high enough to block migrating salmon. No CDFW biologist mentioned that while 10,000 cfs was being released from Shasta at the time, only 4,000 cfs was reaching the lower river.¹ No one mentioned that the State Water Board is not enforcing the State standard of 68°F for the lower Sacramento.

As of 7/23, Sacramento River flow below Wilkins Slough had increased only slightly, to about 4400 cfs. ↩

Barging Hatchery Smolts to the Bay

Posted on July 17, 2016 by Tom Cannon

In this blog I often recommend barging hatchery and even wild salmon from spawning rivers to the Bay up to 200 miles or more over conventional trucking or direct releases from hatcheries. The theory is that continuous recirculation of water in the barge (or boat) holding tank helps the young salmon remember from where they came and imprint the route back to their home river or hatchery. Trucking directly to the Bay is believed to cause straying to non-natal rivers, resulting unnatural mixing of stocks, hatchery fish straying into wild fish spawning rivers, and less salmon returning to their home hatcheries where their eggs may be needed to meet quotas. It is well documented that trucking and pen acclimation significantly increases the contribution of hatchery smolts to the ocean fishery up to two or three fold or more. Concern over straying has kept the practice to a minimum.

Well it turns out from studies conducted with tagged hatchery salmon beginning with releases in 2008 that trucking, at least of American and Feather hatchery smolts, does not lead to significant amounts of straying. Also, barging does not significantly reduce the already low straying rate. So trucking to Bay net pens for acclimation remains the chosen strategy for the two largest State hatcheries, and probably the other two on the Mokelumne and Merced rivers.

The jury is still out on the Coleman and Livingston Stone federal hatcheries near Redding. Straying rates are higher and the benefits of trucking over 200 miles seem questionable. One concern I have is the high straying rate encountered for Coleman (Battle Creek) fish includes fish that move past Battle Creek further up in the Sacramento River and its upper tributaries. Most of the spawning fish in these areas come from Coleman and Livingston Stone national fish hatcheries. Because Coleman was built to mitigate for the loss of fish to those areas, I question their inclusion in the straying estimates. The USFWS, which manages the two hatcheries, continues to be reluctant to truck and barge fish.

Though barging may not be needed for the Feather and American River hatcheries, it still holds potential for improving survival and reducing straying overall. So far, there is no evidence that barging improves survival over trucking to Bay net pens. I reviewed subsequent tag returns for a barge release group in early May 2012 with returns from two net pen groups released at the same time in the Bay. I found the subsequent return percentage of the barge group to be in between the two trucked pen release groups. In the notes of the barge release, high predation by birds was noted. In the photo of a barge release below many birds can be seen. I wonder if the barge release would also benefit from the same pen acclimation that is employed after trucking, which significantly improves trucked fish release survival and subsequent contribution to the fishery. (Note: I have been present at numerous truck releases to the Bay and have observed obvious extreme predation on the disoriented and confused hatchery fish, often released into warmer, saltier water than was present at the hatchery by a horde of well-trained and waiting birds and predatory fish. Release to net pens at variable locations for acclimation and tow to open waters for underwater release seemed to greatly reduce predation, which proved true in subsequent tag returns.)

A closer look at the tag-release-recovery data and further experimentation would better answer the questions, concerns, and hypotheses. There were nine barged groups released into the Bay from 2012-2014. With some tags still out or not processed (tags are in noses of adult fish returns 2-4 years after release), information continues to come in. The nearly million or so coded-wire-tags released from the nine barge groups swam with approximately 30 million other tagged fish from the six Central Valley hatcheries. Furthermore, records are meticulously kept with other tagged groups from Washington and Oregon, as well as from other California watersheds (e.g., Klamath), by the Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission. An example of the type of information available is shown in the map-chart below for just the one barge release group from 2012. The California Department of Fish and Wildlife has its own team and program to keep track of California immense database on releases and recoveries. The Department’s report from November 2015 provides an excellent review of the whole process and results to date.

Hatchery Reform and the Coleman National Fish Hatchery – Adaptive Management Plan

Posted on June 28, 2016 by Tom Cannon

The Coleman National Fish Hatchery (CNFH) on lower Battle Creek near Redding, CA (see map below) was constructed in 1942 to mitigate for the Shasta Dam project on the Sacramento built just upstream from Redding. It annually produces 12,000,000 fall-run salmon smolts and a million late–fall-run salmon smolts. Operation of CNFH is in need of reform because it fails to meet its mitigation goal and because it may interfere with the Battle Creek Restoration Program (BCRP¹).

Efforts to improve salmon runs in recent drought years by trucking smolts to the lower river and Bay-Delta have resulted in increased straying of CNFH adult salmon to other Central Valley Rivers.² Releasing millions of smolts into lower Battle Creek at the hatchery negatively affects wild smolts emigrating from Battle Creek through competition and stimulation of an annual spring striped bass feeding frenzy in the Sacramento River.³ Straying also limits adult salmon return to the hatchery and in some years makes it difficult for the hatchery to meet egg quotas. Plans to reduce these conflicts have drawn criticism from fishermen groups⁴ because of the potential of reducing smolt production and survival, and subsequent fishery harvests. CNFH production likely contributes a third or more of California’s ocean and freshwater salmon catch, and is a major contributor to natural salmon spawning in the Central Valley.

Recommendations

In the Central Valley Salmon Recovery Plan (NMFS 2009/2011, p. 201), NMFS suggests moving the production hatchery to the Sacramento River from Battle Creek to reduce conflicts. The existing hatchery could be used as a conservation hatchery to support recovery of wild Battle Creek salmon and steelhead.
Fall-run salmon smolt production should be trucked/barged to the Bay to maximize contribution to fisheries, recognizing substantial straying of fall-run occurs throughout the Central Valley. Barging smolts from above the mouth of the Feather River to the Bay should reduce straying to the Feather, American, and San Joaquin rivers and their tributaries.
Fall-run CNFH fry can be trucked/barged to high quality lower river floodplain and tidal estuary habitats historically important to fall-run, but presently unavailable or unreachable. Such habitats were important and reachable before the dams were built.
Late-fall-run and steelhead smolts should be released at the hatchery in wet winters, but barged to the Bay in dry years.

June Update and Possible Solution to 2016 Fish Woes

Posted on June 21, 2016 by Tom Cannon

Over the past month I related water issues involving Delta and longfin smelt, striped bass, green and white sturgeon, and winter-run and spring-run salmon. All of these species need river flow and cooler water over the next several months. Shasta releases to the upper Sacramento River need to be cold, stable, and sufficient to sustain winter-run salmon eggs in the river near Redding and to sustain moderate flows and cooler water temperatures for 200 miles of river to protect sturgeon and other lifestages of salmon. Sufficient flows needs to pass through the Delta to keep the low salinity zone downstream of the Delta in the cool waters of eastern Suisun Bay, away from Delta exports.

Shasta releases are now 8000 cfs, with Bend Bridge water temperature near the Red Bluff target of 56°F. In June and July of drought years 2012 and 2013, releases were 11,000-14,000 cfs. However, concern over carryover storage and sustaining cold-water releases through summer has led to a more conservative management strategy in 2016. The cold-water pool in Shasta Reservoir is being rationed to make it through the summer. Flows will rise over the next six weeks to 9,000 or 10,000 cfs to satisfy irrigation demands in the upper river.

Flows in the lower Sacramento River at Wilkins Slough need to be greater than 5000 cfs in summer, if only to keep water temperature down closer to the Basin Plan’s 68°F. Flows are now 3000-4000 cfs, with water temperatures up to 75°F. In dry years 2012 and 2013, flows at Wilkins Slough were 6000-9000 cfs, and water temperatures were cooler, as some of Shasta’s storage was allocated for Delta export. This year’s management strategy to hold back Shasta releases will, if continued, keep both Wilkins Slough flows and Delta exports down.

Delta outflows need to be sustained near 10,000 cfs to keep the low salinity zone and X2 (2 ppt salinity) near Collinsville in eastern Suisun Bay. However, July outflow to the Bay required by water quality standards will be only about 8000 cfs. To help save the last of the two smelt species, 10,000 cfs would be far better.

A reasonable solution is apparent: raise Shasta releases through most of the summer by 2000 cfs to 10,000-12,000 cfs and require that the extra release be passed down the river to and through the Delta. While such a management strategy would benefit the fish, it would decrease Shasta storage by 120,000 acre-ft of water per month. At present, Shasta is 90% full at 4.1 million acre-feet (the cold-water pool volume is about 2.4 maf). At 12,000 cfs, the total Shasta release would rise to 600,000 acre-feet per month, which is about the current total release from Oroville (Feather River) and Folsom (American River) reservoirs. NMFS and USBR have determined that a 10,000 cfs Shasta cold-water release can be sustained through the summer, while a 12,000 cfs release could be problematic. Protests would no doubt come from water users who would want the extra 2000 cfs. But note that of the 20,000 cfs being released today from the three main Sacramento Valley reservoirs, only 8000 cfs is reaching the Bay.¹

This solution of raising total reservoir releases to 22,000-24,000 and Bay outflow to 10,000 cfs is reasonable to help the fish after four years of drought. In 2014-2015, water quality standards were drastically reduced, with catastrophic effects to fish. The continuing legacy of these catastrophic effects creates the urgency to do better in 2016.

If higher releases from Shasta become problematic for whatever reason, then some compromise should be achievable, noting that water deliveries of Shasta water are to be provided only after the needs of the fish are first considered, including conservation of Shasta’s cold-water pool through the summer and early fall (Water Rights Orders 90-05 and 92-02). Further, Central Valley water rights are provided via the Trinity River trans-basin diversion to Keswick Reservoir on the Sacramento River below Shasta Dam, but the Trinity supply is much in doubt because Trinity storage has failed to recover after the drought, unlike Shasta storage. A lack of Trinity supply this summer will further limit water available for irrigation in the Central Valley. Yet another constraint is whether the available storage in Oroville and Folsom reservoirs is able to satisfy Delta demands without compromising the needs of endangered fish in the Feather and American rivers.

Sorting out these conflicts and needs is the responsibility of the State Water Resources Control Board. The Board’s top priority should be the basic needs of the endangered salmon, sturgeon, and smelts of the Central Valley. At minimum, the Board should require the following conditions this summer:

Below Shasta – Stable flows of 9,000 to 10,000 cfs and 56°F average daily water temperatures near Red Bluff (Jellys Ferry or Bend Bridge).
Lower Sacramento River – minimum 5000 cfs at Wilkins Slough (RM 125 on the Sacramento River)
Delta Outflow – 9,000 cfs in July, 5,000 cfs in August, and 4,000 cfs in September.

A further complication is that South Delta export criteria allow an increase from 35% of inflow to 65% starting July 1. Exports in June are limited to 5000 cfs. In July, exports can be raised to 65% of inflow, but only if outflow is kept at 8000 cfs. Delta ag diversions are also near 4000 cfs. Thus July Delta inflow of 20,000 cfs or more (compared to the present inflow of 15,000 cfs) would be needed to allow 10,000 cfs of Delta export. ↩

Spring 2016 Efforts to save Salmon in the Sacramento River below Shasta

Posted on June 15, 2016 by Tom Cannon

Management of flows and water temperatures in the upper Sacramento River near Redding for endangered salmon is frequently presented to the public as complicated, but it is really not that difficult to understand. Chart 1 below depicts about everything that is involved with Sacramento River flows and their history so far this spring. The box outlined in red indicates what has been wrong this spring. The high temperatures shown in this box have hurt winter-run salmon, spring-run salmon, late-fall-run salmon, and green sturgeon, as well as fall-run salmon, steelhead, trout, and white sturgeon. All of these species have suffered unnecessarily from this spring’s water management below Shasta.

Graph of Management of flows and water temperatures in the upper Sacramento River near Redding for endangered salmon is frequently presented to the public as complicated, but it is really not that difficult to understand. Chart 1 below depicts about everything that is involved with Sacramento River flows and their history so far this spring. The box outlined in red indicates what has been wrong this spring. The high temperatures shown in this box have hurt winter-run salmon, spring-run salmon, late-fall-run salmon, and green sturgeon, as well as fall-run salmon, steelhead, trout, and white sturgeon. All of these species have suffered unnecessarily from this spring’s water management below Shasta.

Chart 1. Latest update (6/9/16) from USBR on management of the upper Sacramento River below Shasta for winter-run Chinook salmon. The “spill” in late March was a managed flood release of over 200,000 acre-feet of storage, which kept Shasta (SHA) from filling (4.5 MAF). A key list of the location abbreviations pictured can be found in Table 1 at end of this post. A map of the locations is shown in Chart 3.

The red box in Chart 1 shows that water temperatures since April 1 have exceeded the 56°F target water temperature as defined in the State’s Sacramento Valley Basin Plan, the State’s Water Right Order 90-05 for Shasta Reservoir, and NMFS’s Biological Opinion for salmon and sturgeon as it applies to Shasta operations. These standards have been in place for many decades and are based on sound science.

In a March 31, 2016 letter to Reclamation¹, a week after the flood control release from Shasta, NMFS stated: “Winter-run brood years in 2014 and 2015 experienced very low egg-to-fry survival to Red Bluff as a result of high water temperatures during their egg and alevin incubation stages. As brood year 2016 is the third of three winter-run cohorts, it is very important to operate Shasta Reservoirs conservatively to provide and maintain adequate water temperatures throughout the winter-run early life stages.” The letter concludes as shown immediately below:

So, within a week of the flood release, and based on a pre-spill March 15 forecast by Reclamation, NMFS changed the management compliance point to 55°F 7-day-average-daily-maximum at CCR (Bonneville Bridge in Redding) as a surrogate for a 56°F daily compliance at Balls Ferry (BSF) and Jellys Ferry (JLF). Note that Chart 1 above shows that this surrogate did not satisfy the requirements for either BSF or JLF. Note also that none of the flows prescribed in the table above for April (was 4700), May (6000), or June (7500 so far) have been met. (These flows should have been daily average minimum flows, not monthly averages.)

In an April 22 letter to Reclamation, the Pacific Fisheries Management Council recommended a 56°F compliance point at Jellys Ferry (JLF). That too has been exceeded in May and June.

In a May 2 letter, NMFS changed the compliance point to Keswick Dam: “We will continue to use the maintenance of 52°F daily average temperature (DAT) at Keswick Dam as an indicator of the ability to meet 55°F 7-day average of the daily maximum temperatures (7DADM) at the Bonnyview Bridge temperature compliance point (CCR CDEC location) throughout the temperature management season.” Note this new Keswick criterion was not met in late April or early May, but seems to be controlling after mid-May (Chart 1).

So why has there been so much compromise this spring (red box, Chart 1)? Why not simply meet the longstanding objective of keeping the daily average water temperature at Bend (BND) near Red Bluff? The reason is an unfounded fear by the managing agencies that they will run out of cold water in Shasta before the end of summer, as occurred in 2014 and 2015. Storage in Shasta in spring 2016 started with 4.2 maf. In contrast, storage in Shasta in spring 2014 and 2015 started out at 2.4 and 2.7 maf, respectively. Storage in Shasta in spring 2013 started out at 3.8 maf and met the standard. Storage in Shasta in spring 2009 started out at 3.2 maf and met the standard. There was more cold-water volume stored in Shasta this spring than the total spring storage in 2009 or 2013.

Between March 18 and March 28, 2016, a “flood release” of over 200,000 AF occurred, but the reservoir storage still rose from 3.9 to 4.0 maf. Most of the water released during the flood release was warmer surface water (Chart 2). Even then, the average water temperature from the surface outlets (upper gates) was only 48-50°F.

There is simply no information that indicates the reservoir will run out of cold water by the end of summer. Even Reclamation’s own conservative modeling indicates that a compliance point of 56°F at Balls Ferry can be met, which appears to be the present target in early June (Chart 1).

In conclusion, there is no reason why the Bend or at least the Jellys Ferry 56°F compliance point cannot be met. Perhaps more important is NMFS’s prescribed 9000 cfs June Keswick release. The lower release of 7500 cfs so far in June has resulted in (and allowed) the increased water temperature at Bend (and Red Bluff). These low flows and higher temperature (60-62°F at Red Bluff and higher downstream) have, in addition to adding stress on winter-run salmon, also jeopardized green sturgeon, white sturgeon, spring-run salmon, and steelhead (see previous post). Of the present 7500 cfs release, over 5000 cfs is diverted by downstream Sacramento CVP water contractors. An extra 2000 cfs Keswick release would increase mid-river flows at Wilkins Slough from the existing level of 3000-4000 cfs to 5000-6000 cfs, which would lower Water temperature at Wilkins at least several degrees from daily highs of 75-78°F, which are lethal to migrating adult salmon and young sturgeon.