Unprecedented July Experiment – Correction

In a July 25 post, I wrote of an “unprecedented experiment” that released additional Delta outflow. I wrote that the pulse of Delta outflow in mid-July was in response to the state’s new Delta Smelt Resiliency Strategy July 2016.  Well, while the outcome of increased outflow did indeed create a valuable experiment in regard to smelt, the motivation for the release was simply to allow the water projects to be in compliance with State water quality standards for the Delta.  In this Below Normal water year, the required salinity (EC) at Jersey Point in the west Delta must be maintained below 740 EC on a 14-day average.  As the average EC crept up in mid-July (Figure 1), the water projects increased outflow (by limiting exports) beginning on July 16 (Figure 2).

In a July 14 post, I had recommended 9000 cfs Delta outflow for July to keep smelt and the Low Salinity Zone west of the Delta.  If the projects had in fact maintained July outflow at 9000 cfs, the standard would have been met and the smelt and their habitat would have been better off for it.  A 9000 cfs outflow from July 1-15 would have cost 60,000 AF of water, roughly the cost of the one week of extra water necessary to comply with the standard (the monthly average outflow for July was 8400 cfs).  There was significant daily variation in outflow (Figure 2) that caused significant salt penetration into the Delta (Figure 3) with spring tides (Figure 4).

Perhaps better control of Delta outflow and salt field on a daily basis would benefit Irrigators (the standard is for agriculture) and reduce effects on fish and their habitat.  It also appears that project operators also used more water than was necessary to maintain a consistent 740 EC standard.  The extra water could be credited to the Strategy for helping smelt.

As it turned out, the event did provide an “unprecedented” adaptive management experiment whose effects bear close examination.  If anything, the “experiment” shows that large amounts of water manipulation in the Delta can be accomplished on short notice for whatever purpose.  I regret giving credit to the state and federal water projects for attempting to address the new Delta Smelt Strategy, when no such credit was in fact deserved.  Perhaps in the future the projects will actually seek credit for managing for Delta smelt, if only for that extra increment of water that assures compliance with water quality standards.

igure 1. July 14-day average EC at Jersey Point.

Figure 1. July 14-day average EC at Jersey Point.

Figure 2. Delta outflow (cfs) over past month.

Figure 2. Delta outflow (cfs) over past month.

Figure 3. Daily average Salinity EC at Jersey Point over past month.

Figure 3. Daily average Salinity EC at Jersey Point over past month.

Figure 4. Hourly water level (gage height) at Jersey Point over past month.

Figure 4. Hourly water level (gage height) at Jersey Point over past month.

Splittail Update

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Since I last posted about splittail, there has been little sign of their recovery in the Bay-Delta.  Flooding in the Sacramento Valley brought modest production in 2016, but a dry year in the San Joaquin Valley brought little there.  Numbers observed in summer south Delta pumping plant salvage are now very low (chart), with little evidence of recovery of the population.  The 2011 year class of 5 year olds, the last good wet-year year class, produced minimal offspring in the past three years.  It is fair to say that the recovery potential for the species is improbable.  The next several years will be the last for the 2011 year class, leaving the viability of the species in question.  As I stated in the earlier post, splittail should not have been removed from the federal list of endangered species.

Salvage of Splittail at south Delta export facilities from April 2011 to July 2016.

Salvage of Splittail at south Delta export facilities from April 2011 to July 2016.

Delta Update – August 1, 2016

Just a quick update on Delta fisheries on August 1, 2016. Delta outflow this spring-summer for this below-normal water year was as expected, except for the pulse of up to 14,000 cfs in the July experiment to help Delta Smelt (Figure 1). Year 2000, an above-normal year and a pre-Pelagic Organism Decline year, is shown for comparison.

Figure 1. Delta outflow May-July 2000 and 2016.

Figure 1. Delta outflow May-July 2000 and 2016.

Striped Bass

My earlier optimism for this year’s striped bass production continues to fade.  I continue to believe that the poor success is related to poor early summer Delta outflow based on comparison with year 2000, the last decent year class produced by striped bass in the Bay-Delta as determined by the June Summer Townet Survey.  Figures 2 and 3 show abundance and distribution in 2000 and 2016, respectively.  Densities were an order of magnitude higher in 2000, after spring larvae abundances were similar between the two years.  Figures 4 and 5 show spring-summer salvage at south Delta pumps for 2000 and 2016, respectively.  Again, much higher salvage in 2000 reflects the order of magnitude greater abundance in 2000 than in 2016.

Delta Smelt

Delta Smelt continue to be virtually extinct in the Bay-Delta.  Figures 6 and 7 show abundance and distribution in 2000, the last near normal abundance year (pre-Pelagic Organism Decline), and 2016, respectively.  Figures 8 and 9 show spring-summer salvage at south Delta pumps for 2000 and 2016, respectively.  The relatively high salvage in 2000 reflects the general abundance at the end of the 90’s.  The fact that there are no longer Delta Smelt in the 2016 Townet Survey or in salvage is a very clear indication that Delta Smelt are virtually extinct.  The July experiment, though well intended, was a little too late.

Figure 2. Striped Bass catch per 10,000 cubic meters in June 2000.

Figure 2. Striped Bass catch per 10,000 cubic meters in June 2000.

Figure 3. Striped Bass catch per 10,000 cubic meters in June 2016.

Figure 3. Striped Bass catch per 10,000 cubic meters in June 2016.

Figure 4. South Delta salvage of Striped Bass May-July 2000.

Figure 4. South Delta salvage of Striped Bass May-July 2000.

Figure 5. South Delta salvage of Striped Bass May-July 2016.

Figure 5. South Delta salvage of Striped Bass May-July 2016.

Figure 6. Delta Smelt catch per 10,000 cubic meters in June 2000.

Figure 6. Delta Smelt catch per 10,000 cubic meters in June 2000.

Figure 7. Delta Smelt catch per 10,000 cubic meters in June 2016.

Figure 7. Delta Smelt catch per 10,000 cubic meters in June 2016.

Figure 8. South Delta salvage of Delta Smelt May-July 2000.

Figure 8. South Delta salvage of Delta Smelt May-July 2000.

Figure 9. South Delta salvage of Delta Smelt May-July 2016. (Salvage was zero.)

Figure 9. South Delta salvage of Delta Smelt May-July 2016. (Salvage was zero.)

Experiment – Part 2 Yolo Bypass Flow

Recently I posted about an unprecedented experiment being undertaken as part of the State’s new Delta Smelt Resiliency Strategy July 2016. That experiment now underway (“Experiment 1”) involves increasing Delta outflow in the latter part of July, 2016. The Strategy also included the North Delta Food Web Adaptive Management Projects (“Experiment 2”), management actions that would benefit juvenile and sub-adult Delta smelt by enhancing the north Delta forage supply for Delta smelt. Experiment 2 involves enhancing flow through the Yolo Bypass to the north Delta by closing the Knights Landing Outfall Gates and routing water from the Sacramento River at Hamilton City (GCID intakes) via the Colusa Basin Drain system into the Yolo Bypass to promote food production in areas where Delta smelt are known to occur. The objective of Experiment 2 is to enhance flow and increase nutrient inputs into the tidal north Delta in the Cache Slough-Lower Bypass region. Future food web enhancement flows would also be considered for “additional months in ways that will not conflict with agricultural and waterfowl management actions based on the availability of water to augment flows in the Yolo Bypass. DWR will also explore options for increasing outflow from the Yolo Bypass during the spring.” Experiment 2 also commenced in July 2016 as an “Emergency Action to Help Delta Smelt”.

As it turned out, the two experiments were timed together, probably to complement one another. Colusa Basin Drain flows increased in mid-July in Experiment 2 via diversion from GCID intakes at Hamilton City (Figure 1). Delta outflow (Figure 2) was increased in Experiment 1 by reducing Delta exports on July 15. Flow through the Yolo Bypass was increased (Figure 3) by closing the Knights Landing Outfall Gates from the Colusa Basin Drain to the Sacramento River and routing the flow through the Knights Landing Ridge Cut to the upper Yolo Bypass on down to Cache Slough and the North Delta (see route in Figure 1). Net flow through lower Cache Slough (Figure 4) increased from the combined effect of the higher flow in Yolo Bypass and the increased flow through Miners Slough and Steamboat Slough that resulted from reduced exports.

So is Experiment 2 having the desired effects? Water temperature in the upper and lower Bypass continue close to the 80°F mark due to high summer air temperatures, although the water temperature in the lower Bypass’s Tule Canal has been measurably higher than that in the adjacent Ship Channel (Figure 5). The higher flow in the Tule Canal likely carries a high organic load as is evident in the low night-time dissolved oxygen levels of 3 to 5 mg/l (Figure 6). Concentrations of salts (Figure 7) and organic matter (Figure 8) increase in the lower Bypass with higher flow. Plankton productivity as measured by chlorophyll levels in the lower Sacramento River channel at Rio Vista immediately below Cache Slough, though low (<10 micro-grams per liter), shows signs of increasing (Figure 9). However, several miles downstream in the channel at Sherman Island, there has been no sign of an increase in plankton (Figure 10). If an increase is indeed real, it is not clear if it is being caused by the higher Delta outflow, lower Delta exports, higher flow in the Bypass, or some combination thereof.

All in all, the warm nutrient- and organic-laden 500-600 cfs of water from the Colusa Basin agricultural drain moving down the Bypass appears to reach the tidal lower Bypass/Cache Slough complex. There, it mixes with higher net and tidal flows of Cache Slough and the Sacramento River. With 80,000 to 100,000 cfs going back and forth during the twice daily tide cycle between Cache Slough and Rio Vista, the Colusa Basin water from the Yolo Bypass is quickly mixed, and its signature is lost. The key question: is there sufficient “fertilizer” and extra plankton in this foreign water to stimulate plankton food production in the lower Yolo Bypass, Cache Slough and the north Delta to benefit Delta smelt? A reduction in river flow at Hamilton City from Experiment 2 might be considered an impact to Sacramento River fish unless additional water is specifically released from Shasta Reservoir for the experiment, or unless GCID water contractors forgo use of a portion of their allocated diversion at Hamilton City.

At a minimum, Experiment 2 has proved the efficacy of an action that might be even more effective from late fall to early spring when water used to stimulate plankton production in the Delta would augment the benefits of cooler, higher flows in the Sacramento River.

Figure 1. Path of flows diverted from the Sacramento River near Hamilton City. Water will move down through GCID's system, into the Colusa Basin Drain and Knights Landing Ridge Cut, through Wallace Weir and the Yolo Bypass, and into the Delta near Rio Vista. Source: http://www.norcalwater.org/wp-content/uploads/Smelt-action-fact-sheet.pdf

Figure 1. Path of flows diverted from the Sacramento River near Hamilton City. Water will move down through GCID’s system, into the Colusa Basin Drain and Knights Landing Ridge Cut, through Wallace Weir and the Yolo Bypass, and into the Delta near Rio Vista. Source: http://www.norcalwater.org/wp-content/uploads/Smelt-action-fact-sheet..pdf

Figure 2. Delta outflow July 2016.

Figure 2. Delta outflow July 2016.

Figure 3. Flow in the upper Yolo Bypass near Woodland July 2016.

Figure 3. Flow in the upper Yolo Bypass near Woodland July 2016.

Figure 4. Net tidally filtered flow in lower Cache Slough July 2016.

Figure 4. Net tidally filtered flow in lower Cache Slough July 2016.

Figure 5. Water temperature at adjacent stations in the lower Bypass Tule Canal (GREEN) and Ship Channel (BLUE) during July 2016.

Figure 5. Water temperature at adjacent stations in the lower Bypass Tule Canal (GREEN) and Ship Channel (BLUE) during July 2016.

Figure 6. Dissolved oxygen level in the Yolo Bypass Tule Canal at Lisbon 19-25 July 2016.

Figure 6. Dissolved oxygen level in the Yolo Bypass Tule Canal at Lisbon 19-25 July 2016.

Figure 7. Specific conductance of water in the lower Yolo Bypass at Liberty Cut late July 2016.

Figure 7. Specific conductance of water in the lower Yolo Bypass at Liberty Cut late July 2016.

Figure 8. Concentration of dissolved organic matter in lower Yolo Bypass at Liberty Cut late July 2016.

Figure 8. Concentration of dissolved organic matter in lower Yolo Bypass at Liberty Cut late July 2016.

Figure 9. Chlorophyll concentrations in the lower Sacramento River in north Delta at Rio Vista 18-28 July 2016.

Figure 9. Chlorophyll concentrations in the lower Sacramento River in north Delta at Rio Vista 18-28 July 2016.

Figure 10. Chlorophyll concentrations in the lower Sacramento River in north Delta at Sherman Island 17-28 July 2016.

Figure 10. Chlorophyll concentrations in the lower Sacramento River in north Delta at Sherman Island 17-28 July 2016.

Sac River Salmon Opener a Bust

The salmon season on the lower Sacramento River opened on July 16 with a yawn. As described in the Chico Enterprise, “the salmon aren’t biting”. One fish was confirmed caught. The article paraphrased an analysis by CDFW biologist Rob Titus, who referred to a plan to hold back releases from Shasta Reservoir to help juvenile salmon to migrate to the ocean. The article also stated that “the drought has had a deep impact on the fish population.”

CDFW could have told everyone to stay home. The river flow was too low and the water temperatures were too high for salmon to move up the river. In a July 2 post, I warned about the low flows and warm water. In the lower river, flow was only 4000 cfs. Water temperature reached 72-74°F on opening day (see chart below), high enough to block migrating salmon. No CDFW biologist mentioned that while 10,000 cfs was being released from Shasta at the time, only 4,000 cfs was reaching the lower river.1 No one mentioned that the State Water Board is not enforcing the State standard of 68°F for the lower Sacramento.

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  1. As of 7/23, Sacramento River flow below Wilkins Slough had increased only slightly, to about 4400 cfs.