In an April 13 post¹ I discussed what happened in 2014 that led to the catastrophic loss of much of the Winter Run Chinook Salmon production in the Sacramento River when Shasta Reservoir’s cold-water pool was depleted by the end of August.  With a better temperature model, more knowledge of how to manage Shasta’s cold-water pool, and more volume in the cold-water pool this year, the agencies believe they can make it through the summer of 2015 while supplying the same amount of water to the Sacramento River Settlement Contractors (SRSC) with the same end of September storage as last year.

On April 20, 2015, the Bureau of Reclamation released a “Framework” for managing Shasta storage and the Sacramento River in 2015².  The problem with the Framework is that there are no details as to how the state goals of protecting Winter Run while delivering the same amount of water to SRSC in 2015 as last year will be accomplished.

“Agreement on Sacramento River and SRSC operations is the cornerstone to the overall operations of our water management system, and is a key piece needed before other decisions about volume and timing of transfers to junior water rights holders can be negotiated…. This type of creative, cooperative approach among project operators, regulators, and water users is fundamental to getting the most out of our limited water resources….  We must continue close coordination as we implement the plan, reacting to real-time conditions and balancing the inevitable tradeoffs.”  The problem with this statement is that it was also true for last year.  Despite these same efforts, over 95% of the endangered Winter Run salmon production below Shasta was lost last summer to failed efforts.

“Last year, endangered winter-run Chinook salmon redds in the upper Sacramento River were severely impacted by the lack of cool water,” said Maria Rea, Assistant Regional Administrator for NOAA Fisheries Central Valley Office. “This year we will continue to monitor the temperatures and operations of the Sacramento River throughout the summer.”  Part of the cause of widespread mortality of the 2014 Sacramento River cohort of Winter Run salmon was lack of cold water, but only part.  In addition, salmon redds were physically dewatered and eggs and fry were stranded.  This could occur again this summer.  When monitoring indicated there was a problem last summer, it was too late to take action.

 “A major component of the overall framework is the temperature management plan for the Sacramento River. With the proposed temperature management plan and anticipated CVP operations assuming conservative inflow estimates, storage in Shasta Lake is projected to be approximately 1.1 million acre-feet at the end of September 2015. Water storage and releases from Shasta Lake will be managed carefully to assure the availability of water for multiple beneficial purposes during this fourth year of drought.”  This is the same end-of-summer storage level as last year.  Water storage, releases, and water temperatures were managed last summer.  What specifically will change to ensure that last year’s problem will not reoccur?  The Bureau’s website offers no clue.

“Reclamation will submit the temperature management plan to the State Water Resources Control Board next week as required by the recent Temporary Urgency Change Order.”  The plan will be based on this year’s conditions and a new temperature model.  What assurances do we have that this year’s plan and model will work better than last year’s?

In order to save salmon in 2015, the Bureau Reclamation proposes: “The following actions are designed to help increase the available cold-water resources, improve habitat for Chinook Salmon, and inform real-time adjustments to the temperature management actions, all of which serve to improve the overall effectiveness of the temperature management plan:  

• “The State Water Resources Control Board approved (in part) Reclamation’s April-September Temporary Urgency Change Petition on April 6, 2015, which will maintain minimum flows for fish downstream in the Delta. This will help Reclamation preserve as much cold water as possible in Lake Shasta for its operations and temperature management throughout the spring and summer as well as for water supply purposes.” (Note:  minimum required lower Sacramento River flows are adequate to maintain minimum Delta inflow and outflow requirements.  Shasta releases are necessary only for required in-river flows and water temperatures and to meet SRSC irrigation deliveries.)
• “Biologists from the State and Federal fish agencies will be working in the Sacramento River this summer collecting data to help inform Reclamation operations and temperature management decisions in real time. This work will also provide additional data on salmon spawning and rearing that will be useful in future operations during both dry and wet years.”   (Note: the agencies have been collecting data for many years, including last year, when Winter Run mortality was extremely high.)
• “For the remainder of 2015, the SRSCs, working with the state and federal fishery agencies and conservation partners, will aggressively implement projects included in the Sacramento Valley salmon recovery program. This includes actions to improve spawning in the upper Sacramento River, protect (against) stranding and increase the survival of salmon smolts.” (Note:  How will the contractors contribute to these actions?)

• “A significant portion of the anticipated water transfers from the SRSC’s will be released in the late summer and fall on a schedule that will provide beneficial habitat conditions for spawning fall-run salmon.” (Note: this was done last year.  Summer transfers would continue to deplete the cold-water pool and degrade the critical habitat of listed smelt in the Delta by increasing Delta exports.  Fall transfers through the Delta are also detrimental and not normally allowed.)
• “The federal and state agencies and SRSC’s will have regular meetings to coordinate these actions and will work closely together throughout the year to assure the effective implementation of this plan. We all agree that we stand a better chance of managing limited water supplies with continued communication and cooperation.”  (Note: last year, there was ample communication, yet most of the fish perished.  What will cause the agencies to make better decisions this year?)

Some key facts:

• Last year Shasta started with 2.4 million acre-ft and ended up with 1.1 million acre-ft (Figure 1). This year the plan is to start with 2.7 million acre-ft and end with 1.1 million acre-ft.  (Note that the benefits of this year’s higher spring storage level is offset by a reduced snowpack)
• The Bureau states that the Shasta cold-water pool has 0.7 million acre-ft more at the beginning of this year than last year.
• Last year the Bureau ran out of cold water, resulting in lethal water temperatures and low dissolved oxygen for salmon eggs and fry in spawning reach near Redding, and then dropped flows too low, resulting in dewatered redds.
• Reservoir releases were too high in spring and too low in late summer and fall for good salmon survival (Figure 2).

In conclusion:

1. There are no plans to save Shasta storage for carryover for next year despite the 300,000 acre-ft additional storage this year.
2. There is no explanation for how summer deliveries in 2015 that are functionally equivalent to summer deliveries in 2014 will maintain the cold-water pool in Lake Shasta this year when they caused last year’s disaster.
3. There are no assurances that late summer and early fall flows will be high enough to avoid dewatering salmon redds near Redding.
4. There are no assurances that addition summer and fall reservoir releases will not be needed to sustain the Bay-Delta ecosystem.

Figure 1. Shasta Reservoir storage 2014. Source: CDEC.

Figure 2. Shasta Reservoir releases 2014. Source: CDEC.

Various resource agencies are scrambling to protect Winter Run Chinook Salmon this year after last year’s debacle, in which water “saved” in Shasta Reservoir wasn’t cold enough to keep Winter Run eggs and fry alive¹. Higher, colder flows are necessary to keep the eggs and fry alive in their spawning and early rearing areas near Redding, but were unavailable last summer because Shasta’s cold-water pool was depleted by the end of August.

The five charts included below tell the story of what happened last year. In summary, these are the main reasons why the Bureau of Reclamation ran out of cold water in Shasta Reservoir…

• First, approximately 200,000 acre-feet (AF) of cold-water pool storage was released to senior water rights contractors in May. (Amount calculated from Figure 1 and Table 1).
• Second, approximately 500,000 AF of cold-water pool storage was released in June and July that could be argued was needed for maintaining river temperature control below Redding. However, I would argue that given the precarious state of the Shasta cold-water pool in June and July, federal and state agencies should have released less (to maintain 58°F at Clear Creek instead of the chosen target temperature of 56°F) to sustain Shasta’s cold-water pool. My guess is they could have saved 2000 cfs or about 240,000 AF of total storage in June and July. This water would have come out of the Sacramento River Settlement Contractors’ 560 TAF deliveries for June-July (Table 1).
• Third, somewhat less cold-water pool water could have been saved in early weeks of August.

If the Bureau of Reclamation had saved this 440,000 AF from May-July (about a third of deliveries), there would have been no extreme mortalities of Winter Run Chinook Salmon in the late August-October period from low flows and high water temperatures. Contractors could have made up some of their loss in the late August-October period when higher colder flows would have been released from Shasta for fish. If Sacramento River contractors were unable to use this water late in season, the water could have been used to maintain Delta water quality standards or left as carryover storage in Shasta Reservoir.

In summary, cold-water pool releases from Shasta Reservoir from May through August of 2014 were too great to support the cold water resource, resulting in the loss of much of the year’s production of Winter Run eggs and fry to low flow, warm water conditions. In similar conditions in 2015, releases for contractor irrigation deliveries should be reduced in order to sustain Shasta’s cold-water pool through the summer. Such protections should be the cornerstone of the Drought Operations Plan being developed by the agencies. NMFS and DFW should not approve the Plan without this element to protect Winter Run.

Figure 1. Mainstem flow of the Sacramento River below Redding, May-Sept 2014. Flows generally reflect releases from Shasta Reservoir. (Source: USGS Mobile Data Site)

Figure 2. Mainstem Sacramento River flows at Wilkins Slough gage below most of the contractor diversions. (Source: USGS Mobile Data Site)

Figure 3. Power-Point slide of risk to Winter Run adults, eggs, and fry as a function of water temperature in Shasta Reservoir releases (as measured Keswick Reservoir releases – KWK).²

Figure 4. Power-Point slide of risk to Winter Run eggs as a function of water temperature in Shasta Reservoir releases (as measured Keswick Reservoir releases – KWK) and temperature in the river below the mouth of Clear Creek near Redding.³

Table 1. Water deliveries from Reclamation to Sacramento River contractors in 2014.
(Source: http://www.usbr.gov/mp/cvo/vungvari/table_28_2014.pdf)

The California Department of Fish and Wildlife proposes to close fishing in the 5.5 miles of the Sacramento River above Hwy 44 Bridge from April 27-July 31 this year.¹ These upper few miles of the river below Keswick Dam provide a world-class sport fishery for rainbow trout (salmon fishing in this river reach is permanently closed). The premise of the ban is to reduce mortality on endangered Winter Run Chinook Salmon. The reach is where most of the Winter Run spawn, eggs incubate, and fry emerge in gravels from late spring through early fall (Figure 1). Last summer 95% of the 2014 Winter Run brood year perished from redd dewatering and high water temperatures.

The proposed closure would inappropriately place the drought-management burden on sport anglers when the problem is poor water management in the present drought. The low flows and high water temperatures in 2014 were caused by depletion of Shasta Reservoir’s cold-water pool to meet water demands of Central Valley Project Settlement Contractors in the Sacramento Valley. These senior water rights holders received 1.3 million acre-ft of Shasta storage during 2014. An additional 110,000 acre-ft released was sold to south of Delta contractors via water transfers from July through November. Shasta Reservoir storage peaked last year near 2.4 million acre-ft in early May, then declined to 1.1 million acre-ft in October.

Shasta Reservoir releases were over 6000 cfs from early May through August (Figure 2). Most of the Winter Run spawned in June and July at flows in excess of 8000 cfs. During the August through September incubation period, flows fell to near 4000 cfs, resulting in the dewatering of many salmon redds. Redd dewatering coupled with high water temperatures resulted in the loss of 95% of the brood year production during September, according to CDFW and NMFS.

Closing the fishery this summer implies that sport fishing activities would otherwise contribute to Winter Run mortality when there is no scientific evidence to support this assumption. Boat traffic is mainly drift boats, which minimally disturb fish. The most obvious risk from fishermen would be trampling redds in the low water period in the August-September incubation period, which is not included in the proposed ban. Even that risk is low, since few anglers wade the spawning reaches.

DFW’s blog states: “Given the gravity of the current situation, it is imperative that each and every adult fish be given maximum protection.”²
The “maximum protection” standard would be much better applied if the Department unequivocally supported measures to protect all life stages of Winter Run. Instead of burdening sport fishermen with the proposed ban, the solution is for the State Water Board to reduce deliveries from Lake Shasta to water contractors this summer. If releases had been cut by a third from May-July last year, the Winter Run could have been saved. Yes, this would have come at a substantial cost to state’s agricultural production (Settlement contractors were already cut 25%), but the drought is unprecedented. Winter Run salmon extinction should not be the price paid to keep rice production high this year in the Sacramento Valley.

Figure 1. Water temperature (degrees F) in Redding reach below Keswick Dam (KWK) in 2014, along with percent of Winter Run life stage present. Red line shows water temperature where egg/alevin survival is less than 50%. Source: NMFS

Figure 2. Shasta Reservoir releases from April through October 2014.