The government forecast for adult fall-run salmon available along the coast to target for harvest in 2025 is 165,655 (black dot is number for 2025 in above Figure 1).  That number is only slightly higher than the 122,000 target minimum to allow some harvest.  The fishery was closed in 09, 10, 23, and 24.  The model used for the estimate is crude at best – based primarily on two-year-old escapement the prior year.

I have my own model based on the number of spawners (escapement) three years earlier (Figure 2).  The model did pretty well predicting 2023 and 2024.  For 2025 I guessed as best I could and came out with similar numbers as the government.  There are probably between 150 and 250 thousand salmon out there this summer available for salmon fisheries.

My guess is that the government is not going to offer a salmon fishery this year based on the poor numbers in the fishable stock, the predominance of hatchery fish, and record low numbers of wild salmon stocks.  Though a reasonable conclusion under the present circumstances, I think it is a mistake for the following reasons.

1. Though spawner numbers were low in drought year 2022, conditions in winter-spring of wet year 2023 were very good (a blue year) for juvenile survival to the ocean.
2. Most of the 20 million or so fall-run hatchery smolts were released to good river or Bay conditions in 2023. Millions were released to net pens in coastal waters near the Golden Gate Bridge, in Half Moon Bay, and in Monterey Bay locations where salmon smolt survival has been exceptionally high.
3. The Mokelumne River Hatchery has been producing record runs of fall run salmon in recent years by releasing millions of smolts to Bay and Coastal waters.
4. The fishery has been closed for two years, leaving more fish from brood years 2021-to-2023 in the fishable stock.
5. Ocean conditions in 2023 and 2024 were relatively good.
6. Water year 2025 is shaping up to be a relatively wet year providing good conditions for returning adult salmon.
7. Overall, many hatchery-produced salmon would simply go to waste and compete with wild salmon for precious spawning habitat.

One caveat remains – the poor state of wild, naturally spawning salmon.  Their populations likely would suffer from the loss of spawners to harvest.

Therefore I recommend consideration of a mark-selective fishery that allows harvest only of hatchery fish with adipose fin clips, but that requires release of unmarked salmon (hatchery and wild).  California steelhead fisheries have such regulations.  Many coho and chinook salmon fisheries in the Pacific Northwest have such regulations.  Special regulations on season, area, and size can serve to protect non-target salmon such as spring-run and winter-run listed salmon or recovering Klamath River salmon.  Such a fishery should be experimental, with an extra dose of monitoring, assessment, progress reporting, stakeholder involvement, and adaptive management.

The fishery harvest would be severely limited, as only about 25% of hatchery smolts are marked.  Only about one in five salmon caught will have an adipose fin removed allowing harvest, reflecting 25% proportional marking and 20% of the harvestable fish being wild or natural born.  This may limit the feasibility of commercial fisheries and result in greater effort and fish handling.

Overall, such a limited fishery would likely be better than none at all when measured in terms of cultural and socioeconomic value.