Spring 2016 Efforts to save Salmon in the Sacramento River below Shasta

Posted on June 15, 2016 by Tom Cannon

Management of flows and water temperatures in the upper Sacramento River near Redding for endangered salmon is frequently presented to the public as complicated, but it is really not that difficult to understand. Chart 1 below depicts about everything that is involved with Sacramento River flows and their history so far this spring. The box outlined in red indicates what has been wrong this spring. The high temperatures shown in this box have hurt winter-run salmon, spring-run salmon, late-fall-run salmon, and green sturgeon, as well as fall-run salmon, steelhead, trout, and white sturgeon. All of these species have suffered unnecessarily from this spring’s water management below Shasta.

Graph of Management of flows and water temperatures in the upper Sacramento River near Redding for endangered salmon is frequently presented to the public as complicated, but it is really not that difficult to understand. Chart 1 below depicts about everything that is involved with Sacramento River flows and their history so far this spring. The box outlined in red indicates what has been wrong this spring. The high temperatures shown in this box have hurt winter-run salmon, spring-run salmon, late-fall-run salmon, and green sturgeon, as well as fall-run salmon, steelhead, trout, and white sturgeon. All of these species have suffered unnecessarily from this spring’s water management below Shasta.

Chart 1. Latest update (6/9/16) from USBR on management of the upper Sacramento River below Shasta for winter-run Chinook salmon. The “spill” in late March was a managed flood release of over 200,000 acre-feet of storage, which kept Shasta (SHA) from filling (4.5 MAF). A key list of the location abbreviations pictured can be found in Table 1 at end of this post. A map of the locations is shown in Chart 3.

The red box in Chart 1 shows that water temperatures since April 1 have exceeded the 56°F target water temperature as defined in the State’s Sacramento Valley Basin Plan, the State’s Water Right Order 90-05 for Shasta Reservoir, and NMFS’s Biological Opinion for salmon and sturgeon as it applies to Shasta operations. These standards have been in place for many decades and are based on sound science.

In a March 31, 2016 letter to Reclamation¹, a week after the flood control release from Shasta, NMFS stated: “Winter-run brood years in 2014 and 2015 experienced very low egg-to-fry survival to Red Bluff as a result of high water temperatures during their egg and alevin incubation stages. As brood year 2016 is the third of three winter-run cohorts, it is very important to operate Shasta Reservoirs conservatively to provide and maintain adequate water temperatures throughout the winter-run early life stages.” The letter concludes as shown immediately below:

So, within a week of the flood release, and based on a pre-spill March 15 forecast by Reclamation, NMFS changed the management compliance point to 55°F 7-day-average-daily-maximum at CCR (Bonneville Bridge in Redding) as a surrogate for a 56°F daily compliance at Balls Ferry (BSF) and Jellys Ferry (JLF). Note that Chart 1 above shows that this surrogate did not satisfy the requirements for either BSF or JLF. Note also that none of the flows prescribed in the table above for April (was 4700), May (6000), or June (7500 so far) have been met. (These flows should have been daily average minimum flows, not monthly averages.)

In an April 22 letter to Reclamation, the Pacific Fisheries Management Council recommended a 56°F compliance point at Jellys Ferry (JLF). That too has been exceeded in May and June.

In a May 2 letter, NMFS changed the compliance point to Keswick Dam: “We will continue to use the maintenance of 52°F daily average temperature (DAT) at Keswick Dam as an indicator of the ability to meet 55°F 7-day average of the daily maximum temperatures (7DADM) at the Bonnyview Bridge temperature compliance point (CCR CDEC location) throughout the temperature management season.” Note this new Keswick criterion was not met in late April or early May, but seems to be controlling after mid-May (Chart 1).

So why has there been so much compromise this spring (red box, Chart 1)? Why not simply meet the longstanding objective of keeping the daily average water temperature at Bend (BND) near Red Bluff? The reason is an unfounded fear by the managing agencies that they will run out of cold water in Shasta before the end of summer, as occurred in 2014 and 2015. Storage in Shasta in spring 2016 started with 4.2 maf. In contrast, storage in Shasta in spring 2014 and 2015 started out at 2.4 and 2.7 maf, respectively. Storage in Shasta in spring 2013 started out at 3.8 maf and met the standard. Storage in Shasta in spring 2009 started out at 3.2 maf and met the standard. There was more cold-water volume stored in Shasta this spring than the total spring storage in 2009 or 2013.

Between March 18 and March 28, 2016, a “flood release” of over 200,000 AF occurred, but the reservoir storage still rose from 3.9 to 4.0 maf. Most of the water released during the flood release was warmer surface water (Chart 2). Even then, the average water temperature from the surface outlets (upper gates) was only 48-50°F.

There is simply no information that indicates the reservoir will run out of cold water by the end of summer. Even Reclamation’s own conservative modeling indicates that a compliance point of 56°F at Balls Ferry can be met, which appears to be the present target in early June (Chart 1).

In conclusion, there is no reason why the Bend or at least the Jellys Ferry 56°F compliance point cannot be met. Perhaps more important is NMFS’s prescribed 9000 cfs June Keswick release. The lower release of 7500 cfs so far in June has resulted in (and allowed) the increased water temperature at Bend (and Red Bluff). These low flows and higher temperature (60-62°F at Red Bluff and higher downstream) have, in addition to adding stress on winter-run salmon, also jeopardized green sturgeon, white sturgeon, spring-run salmon, and steelhead (see previous post). Of the present 7500 cfs release, over 5000 cfs is diverted by downstream Sacramento CVP water contractors. An extra 2000 cfs Keswick release would increase mid-river flows at Wilkins Slough from the existing level of 3000-4000 cfs to 5000-6000 cfs, which would lower Water temperature at Wilkins at least several degrees from daily highs of 75-78°F, which are lethal to migrating adult salmon and young sturgeon.

Chart 2. Shasta Dam Temperature Control Device configuration on March 15, 2016.

Chart 3. Map of key monitoring stations in upper Sacramento River below Shasta.

Table 1. List of abbreviations for locations in Chart 1. A map of locations is shown in Chart 3 above.

All communications cited are available at: http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterrights/water_issues/programs/drought/sacramento_river/ ↩

Sturgeon are being Decimated by Water Management in Spring 2016

Posted on June 8, 2016 by Tom Cannon

Green and White sturgeon spawn in the Sacramento River in spring, usually in April and May. Green sturgeon spawn predominantly above Red Bluff (RM 243) to near Redding (RM 264); they also spawn below Red Bluff, downstream to Hamilton City (RM 200) (see Figure 1). White sturgeon spawn primarily below Hamilton City in the lower river above and below Wilkins Slough (RM 125, downstream of area shown on map). Like other endangered fish in the Central Valley, sturgeon too were hurt during the recent four years of drought ¹ by low flows and high water temperatures.

Figure 1. Map of the upper Sacramento River Basin (Princeton Ferry to Keswick Dam)

But this year is supposed to be different. Water Year 2016 is a wetter year (designated “Below Normal” for Sacramento Valley), and Shasta Reservoir is nearly full. Reclamation’s Central Valley Project should be able to meet the criteria set forth in the Basin Plan, Water Right Order 90-05, and the salmon and green sturgeon Biological Opinion that are designed to maintain habitat for salmon and sturgeon in the Sacramento River. Those criteria have a common element of maintaining Red Bluff (RM 243) spring-summer water temperature below a daily average of 56°F. The Basin Plan extends the criteria downstream to Hamilton City (RM 200) and adds a 68°F criterion from there downstream to Sacramento (RM 60) to protect salmon, sturgeon, and other fish. The criteria have been in place for decades, and are based on extensive science. Salmon spawning requires daily average water temperatures below 56°F. Water temperatures above 68°F are lethal to juvenile sturgeon.² Governing requirements in each of the documents cited above allow the applicable criteria to be applied further upstream in drier years when Shasta storage and cold-water pool resources are less than adequate.

This year, the responsible agencies have apparently decided that the cold-water pool volume is inadequate despite the fact that Shasta is virtually full. The agencies have set the Control Point at Redding, with a 58°F daily average limit. By allowing the Red Bluff 56°F objective to be substantially weakened, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), the federal agency responsible for salmon and sturgeon, is thus accepting great risk not only to Winter Run salmon (decimated over the past two years), but also to green and white sturgeon.

To save the Shasta cold-water pool, Reclamation has been releasing a minimum amount of water from Shasta and is taking the water primarily from the upper warm surface layers of the reservoir.³ This has resulted in water temperatures in the lower river at Red Bluff in excess of 56°F (Figure 2). It has also resulted in water temperatures below Red Bluff (Figure 3) that exceed 65°F, the upper thermal optima for sturgeon embryo development, and even 68°F, the lethal level for newly hatched sturgeon juveniles.⁴ The warm water in the lower river is also a consequence of unusually low seasonal flows in the lower Sacramento River in spring 2016 (Figures 4 and 5).

May and June are precisely the months of concern for the sturgeon. Sturgeon begin spawning when water temperatures start to exceed 55°F, which generally occurs in April. Green sturgeon young spawned above Red Bluff pass downstream through Red Bluff in May and June (Figure 6). Those passing Red Bluff and those spawned between Red Bluff and Hamilton City likely encountered their upper thermal optima of 65°F during May and early June. White sturgeon spawned in the lower river were subjected to lethal water temperature during much of May 2016. Lethal water temperatures predominated in May 2014 and 2015 (Figure 7), Critically Dry years, as well as in Below Normal 2016 (Figures 3 and 7). River flows at Wilkins Slough were also very low in these same years (Figure 5). In contrast, higher flows and lower water temperature were maintained in spring of years 2008-2013, which included four drought years.

The overall risk is greatest to White sturgeon, which spawn in the lower river where water temperatures are highest. That high risk is the result of unusually low seasonal river flows from a seemingly overzealous need by Reclamation to conserve Shasta storage this year. This effect is compounded by the fact that, of the 7000 cfs being releases from Shasta, only 3000 cfs is reaching the lower river. The rest is diverted by Reclamation’s north of Delta contractors, who received 100% of their allocations this year.

The sturgeon deserve 100% of their needs as well. That would require colder water and higher releases from Shasta to get flows at Wilkins Slough into the range of 5000-7000 cfs that was achieved in drought years 2008, 2009, 2012, and 2013 (Figure 5). That would amount to 4000-8000 acre-feet per day (0.1-0.2%/day) of a nearly full Shasta Reservoir (currently with 4,200,000 acre-feet of stored water). Such releases will be required in any event to meet export demands from the Delta in June.

For more detail on the issue see the following:

Figure 2. Water temperature of Sacramento River at Red Bluff (RM 243) in May and early June 2016. Target for salmon and other fish is 56°F (red line).

Figure 3. Water temperature of Sacramento River at Wilkins Slough (RM 125) in May and early June 2016. Target for sturgeon and other fish is 68°F (red line).

Figure 4. Daily average Sacramento River flow at Wilkins Slough (RM 125) in May 2016.

Figure 5. Sacramento River flow at Wilkins Slough (RM 125) 2008-2016. Circles denote unusually low flows 2014-2016.

Figure 6. Capture patterns of young Green sturgeon in USFWS traps at Red Bluff 2003-2012.

Figure 7. Water temperature in the Sacramento River at Wilkins Slough 2008-2016. The Basin Plan objective and the lethal water temperature for young sturgeon of 68°F is depicted with red line.

USBR – Increase Shasta Cold Water Releases

Posted on May 21, 2016 by Tom Cannon

Water Year 2016 on the Sacramento River has been designated a “Below Normal” year. Water Year 2010 was also a Below Normal year. Both years followed multiyear droughts. In both years, Shasta Reservoir was nearly full at the end of April (2010 was 4.4 maf; 2016 was 4.2 maf). In early May 2010, Keswick releases were 7500 cfs, and release water temperatures were 50-52°F. In early May 2016, Keswick releases have been 5200-6200 cfs, and release water temperatures have been 53-55°F.

In April and May, 2010, water temperatures in the upper river remained below 56°F. In contrast, the warmer, lower flows in 2016 have led to excessively warm water temperatures in the upper Sacramento River. Water temperatures have reached 60-62°F in the upper river (Figure 1), which are well above the prescribed water quality standard of 56°F necessary to protect spawning salmon and sturgeon. Winter-run salmon began spawning in late April. Green and white sturgeon spawn in May.

Figure 1. Water temperature in the upper Sacramento River below Shasta Reservoir in early May 2016. In contrast, water temperatures at these locations during early May 2010 were 56°F or lower.

Reclamation’s CVP operations should strive to maintain the 56°F standard through the spring and summer, as prescribed in the Basin Plan and in the NMFS biological opinion for Shasta operations. This temperature can be achieved by increasing Shasta releases or by lowering the water temperature of releases using the temperature control tower/device (TCD) at the dam, or by a combination of these elements. In the last few days, Reclamation has increased releases and has added colder water, resulting in slightly colder Keswick releases (Figure 1). Reclamation has decreased the temperature of releases by opening one the six middle outlets of the Shasta Temperature Control Device (Figure 2). However, downstream temperatures remain high, because air temperatures and water diversions downstream are also increasing.

While there is some logic behind Reclamation’s decision to minimize reservoir releases to save Shasta storage, it is inappropriate to jeopardize endangered fish in the upper Sacramento River with excessively warm water this year, given the abundance of cold water in the reservoir. ¹

With Shasta releases expected to increase soon to meet increasing irrigation demands, it will be imperative that water temperatures upstream of Red Bluff remain below 56°F to protect spawning salmon and sturgeon and their young into and through the summer.

The “official” temperature target and control point since April 15, 2016 have been 58°F at Redding (station CCR). In 2010, the target temperature was 56°F, and the control point was at Jellys Ferry (RM 267), 20 miles downstream of Redding. The State Board and NMFS should immediately change the target temperature to 56°F, and move the control point at least downstream to Jellys Ferry. Preferably, the compliance point should be further downstream at Red Bluff, to be in compliance with the NMFS biological opinion (56°F at Red Bluff – RM 243). The Basin Plan puts the compliance point further downstream still, (56°F at Hamilton City – RM 200). ²

Following catastrophic losses of winter-run in the Sacramento below Shasta during the past two years, it is imperative to meet the summer water temperature goals as prescribed in the NMFS biological opinion. The Shasta cold-water pool and storage available are more than adequate to meet these objectives.

Figure 2. Shasta Dam’s temperature control tower/device or TCD has multiple options for releasing water from the reservoir. One middle outlet was recently opened to reduce the temperature of the water released to the Sacramento River. (Source: USBR MidPacific Division)

A disproportionate amount of Sacramento River Delta inflow this spring has come from Oroville Reservoir (Feather River) and Folsom Reservoir (American River) storage releases. Excessive use of Folsom storage to meet Bay-Delta needs could lead to loss of its cold-water pool this summer and greater mortality of over-summering juvenile salmon and steelhead in the American River. ↩
A plan for summer operations from Reclamation is due by May 15, 2016 ↩

What’s the Plan, Sam?

Posted on April 28, 2016 by Tom Cannon

Uncle Sam has the Trinity River Plan together for 2016 (Figure 1). Trinity Reservoir is not full (Figure 2) and may not fill, but it is a Wet water year under the Trinity River Record of Decision, and the fish are going to get a lot of water after the worst two storage years since the reservoir first filled in 1963.

I can’t say the same for the other parts of the Central Valley Project in northern California. Despite the fact that Shasta Reservoir will soon fill (4.5 million acre-feet) and is making flood releases, it is only a “Below Normal” year for the Sacramento Valley. But all the north- of- Delta water contractors will be getting 100% of their water allocations. ¹

What will the flows be below Shasta? What will be the flows at Wilkins Slough in Sacramento River in mid-Valley? What will Delta inflows, exports, and outflows be? Will the Delta have a wet June? What will the target water temperatures near Redding this summer be for Winter Run salmon? Will it be a 53°F summer target for the salmon for Red Bluff, or will Water Right Order 90-5 requirements be weakened as they has been over the past four years of drought?

The Sacramento River Plan is due at the end of April. It all hinges on whether Shasta will retain 2.2 million acre-ft of storage by the end of September (it will unless diversion demands are excessive). Will the feds and the state try to weaken the standard again? Will they accept poorer results than 2010 and 2011 (Figure 3)?

Figure 1. Trinity River Restoration Program Homepage.

Figure 2. Trinity Lake monthly storage level 1962-2016. (Source: CDEC)

Figure 3. Survival of Winter Run year classes below Shasta Dam from 1996-2015.² WR 90-05 water temperature standard for Sacramento River near Red Bluff was weakened during 2012-2015 drought. The severely weakened standard in 2014 and 2015 led to poor survival and virtual loss of two year classes.

Winter Run Salmon have taken the Brunt of Punishment from Reclamation’s Shasta-Trinity Drought Operations – what about 2016?

Posted on March 22, 2016 by Tom Cannon

In the last two summers, Winter Run salmon production was greatly reduced by Reclamation’s operations of the Shasta-Trinity Division of the Central Valley Project. While the drought brought on the problem and the specific damaging project operations, the damage done was in large part unnecessary. Furthermore, not all the blame should go to Reclamation – the State Water Board and resource agencies who condoned the damaging operations also deserve some of the dis-credit.

I wrote on the subject in some detail in November.¹ Resource and management agencies who were responsible for the failure of two year classes of Winter Run continue to blame the drought or demands of water contractors on Shasta-Trinity storage (Figure 1). Soon they will prepare a plan for the coming irrigation season. The plan will depend greatly on present and coming late-winter weather and hydrology. Given that Shasta Reservoir likely will fill this spring, the plan will likely revert to operations similar to those of 2011 and 2012, the last two years when the reservoir filled.

Figure 1. NMFS blames the drought.

State Board’s Thoughts

The State Board has been thinking carefully about what to do this summer for Winter Run salmon. ²

“With the loss of two out of three cohorts of endangered wild winter-run Chinook salmon (2014 and 2015), it is critical that we develop cold water pool resources in the winter and spring to support temperature management needed later in the year for this third wild winter run Chinook salmon year class.” Comment: irrigation deliveries to Sacramento River Settlement Contractors in April and May of the last two years were a major cause of the loss of the cold-water pool in Shasta. This in turn led to high egg mortality in the upper Sacramento River just below Shasta. While cutting the April and May deliveries would have alleviated the greater part of the problem in both years, it is not all of the problem or solution. Operational changes in the Shasta-Trinity Division could have eliminated many of the problems with little impact to irrigation deliveries, at least in 2015.
“These data reflect a 97.9% mortality of winter-run Chinook salmon eggs and fry on the upper Sacramento River in 2015.” Comment: Yes, the excessive water temperatures allowed by the State Board by relaxing their water quality standards caused the nearly complete loss of 2015 Winter Run production.
“Shasta operations: Implementation and Exception Procedures for End of September (EOS) Storage of 1.9 MAF or below – As per RPA Action I.2.2.C, if the EOS storage is at or below 1.9 MAF, then Keswick releases shall be managed to improve storage and maintained at 3,250 cfs unless hydrology improves.” Comment: Hydrology in the Central Valley has greatly improved with El Niño, yet releases were kept at 3250 cfs all winter, to the further detriment of the Winter Run, and were only increased well after Shasta exceeded the reservoir level at which Reclamation is supposed to release water to protect against floods. Young salmon need flow pulses to successfully migrate downstream from spawning and rearing areas.
“Given the substantial mortality of Sacramento River winter-run Chinook during the egg incubation and emergence periods in BYs 2014 and 2015, there is a need to conservatively manage for protection of the third of three winter-run Chinook cohorts, which will return to spawn upper Sacramento River beginning in summer of 2016. In the coming months, Reclamation and NMFS will be evaluating different actions to balance fishery needs, water supply, and water quality to develop a greater likelihood of protecting juvenile winter-run from BY 2016. As mentioned previously, any proposed action will require the cooperation of senior water rights holders on the Sacramento River and a system-wide operational approach to prioritize cold-water storage and operations at Shasta Lake.” Comment: After the failures in 2014 and 2015, we await the final plan for 2016.
“Under any hydrologic exceedence scenarios, there is a need to maximize water storage in Lake Shasta to comply with the December 15, 2015 adopted Order and also increase the likelihood of successfully implementing a water temperature management plan to benefit winter run Chinook salmon. The NMFS has prepared some initial concepts to achieve storage and temperature goals (Attachment 4) (Figure 2). In general, the proposed concept involves flow release as low as 2750 and 3250 until late May or initiation of a water temperature management plan.” Comment: The suggested NMFS improvements (“2016 adjustment”) would be a great benefit, particularly the 53°F DAT (daily average temperature) at Clear Creek in Redding (CCR). Obviously, 53°F would be a substantial improvement over last year’s allowed 58°F. The change is reasonably conservative given the present state of the population. The 55°F 7-day average daily maximum option leaves too much room for error, such as a day of lethal temperatures. Given the circumstances, we can only hope that NMFS recommends the more conservative approach, as it will also greatly help downstream habitat conditions at Balls Ferry and Jellys Ferry, which would further benefit Winter Run.

Figure 2. NMFS considerations for the coming summer water temperature standard in the Sacramento River near Redding.

Present Prognosis

Nearly half way through the water year it is safe to say there is a very reasonable chance there will be adequate water resources to save the Winter Run salmon this year. Shasta storage is sharply rising (Figure 3). The reservoir will likely fill this spring for the first time since 2012. The snow pack is also above average.