Category Archives: Northern California

Sturgeon are being Decimated by Water Management in Spring 2016

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Green and White sturgeon spawn in the Sacramento River in spring, usually in April and May. Green sturgeon spawn predominantly above Red Bluff (RM 243) to near Redding (RM 264); they also spawn below Red Bluff, downstream to Hamilton City (RM 200) (see Figure 1). White sturgeon spawn primarily below Hamilton City in the lower river above and below Wilkins Slough (RM 125, downstream of area shown on map). Like other endangered fish in the Central Valley, sturgeon too were hurt during the recent four years of drought 1 by low flows and high water temperatures.

Figure 1. Map of the upper Sacramento River Basin (Princeton Ferry to Keswick Dam)

Figure 1. Map of the upper Sacramento River Basin (Princeton Ferry to Keswick Dam)

But this year is supposed to be different. Water Year 2016 is a wetter year (designated “Below Normal” for Sacramento Valley), and Shasta Reservoir is nearly full. Reclamation’s Central Valley Project should be able to meet the criteria set forth in the Basin Plan, Water Right Order 90-05, and the salmon and green sturgeon Biological Opinion that are designed to maintain habitat for salmon and sturgeon in the Sacramento River. Those criteria have a common element of maintaining Red Bluff (RM 243) spring-summer water temperature below a daily average of 56°F. The Basin Plan extends the criteria downstream to Hamilton City (RM 200) and adds a 68°F criterion from there downstream to Sacramento (RM 60) to protect salmon, sturgeon, and other fish. The criteria have been in place for decades, and are based on extensive science. Salmon spawning requires daily average water temperatures below 56°F. Water temperatures above 68°F are lethal to juvenile sturgeon.2 Governing requirements in each of the documents cited above allow the applicable criteria to be applied further upstream in drier years when Shasta storage and cold-water pool resources are less than adequate.

This year, the responsible agencies have apparently decided that the cold-water pool volume is inadequate despite the fact that Shasta is virtually full. The agencies have set the Control Point at Redding, with a 58°F daily average limit. By allowing the Red Bluff 56°F objective to be substantially weakened, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), the federal agency responsible for salmon and sturgeon, is thus accepting great risk not only to Winter Run salmon (decimated over the past two years), but also to green and white sturgeon.

To save the Shasta cold-water pool, Reclamation has been releasing a minimum amount of water from Shasta and is taking the water primarily from the upper warm surface layers of the reservoir.3 This has resulted in water temperatures in the lower river at Red Bluff in excess of 56°F (Figure 2). It has also resulted in water temperatures below Red Bluff (Figure 3) that exceed 65°F, the upper thermal optima for sturgeon embryo development, and even 68°F, the lethal level for newly hatched sturgeon juveniles.4 The warm water in the lower river is also a consequence of unusually low seasonal flows in the lower Sacramento River in spring 2016 (Figures 4 and 5).

May and June are precisely the months of concern for the sturgeon. Sturgeon begin spawning when water temperatures start to exceed 55°F, which generally occurs in April. Green sturgeon young spawned above Red Bluff pass downstream through Red Bluff in May and June (Figure 6). Those passing Red Bluff and those spawned between Red Bluff and Hamilton City likely encountered their upper thermal optima of 65°F during May and early June. White sturgeon spawned in the lower river were subjected to lethal water temperature during much of May 2016. Lethal water temperatures predominated in May 2014 and 2015 (Figure 7), Critically Dry years, as well as in Below Normal 2016 (Figures 3 and 7). River flows at Wilkins Slough were also very low in these same years (Figure 5). In contrast, higher flows and lower water temperature were maintained in spring of years 2008-2013, which included four drought years.

The overall risk is greatest to White sturgeon, which spawn in the lower river where water temperatures are highest. That high risk is the result of unusually low seasonal river flows from a seemingly overzealous need by Reclamation to conserve Shasta storage this year. This effect is compounded by the fact that, of the 7000 cfs being releases from Shasta, only 3000 cfs is reaching the lower river. The rest is diverted by Reclamation’s north of Delta contractors, who received 100% of their allocations this year.

The sturgeon deserve 100% of their needs as well. That would require colder water and higher releases from Shasta to get flows at Wilkins Slough into the range of 5000-7000 cfs that was achieved in drought years 2008, 2009, 2012, and 2013 (Figure 5). That would amount to 4000-8000 acre-feet per day (0.1-0.2%/day) of a nearly full Shasta Reservoir (currently with 4,200,000 acre-feet of stored water). Such releases will be required in any event to meet export demands from the Delta in June.

For more detail on the issue see the following:

  1. http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterrights/water_issues/programs/drought/sacramento_river/
  2. http://www.norcalwater.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/swrcb_summary_apr_2014.pdf
Figure 2. Water temperature of Sacramento River at Red Bluff (RM 243) in May and early June 2016. Target for salmon and other fish is 56°F (red line).

Figure 2. Water temperature of Sacramento River at Red Bluff (RM 243) in May and early June 2016. Target for salmon and other fish is 56°F (red line).

Figure 3. Water temperature of Sacramento River at Wilkins Slough (RM 125) in May and early June 2016. Target for sturgeon and other fish is 68°F (red line).

Figure 3. Water temperature of Sacramento River at Wilkins Slough (RM 125) in May and early June 2016. Target for sturgeon and other fish is 68°F (red line).

Figure 4. Daily average Sacramento River flow at Wilkins Slough (RM 125) in May 2016.

Figure 4. Daily average Sacramento River flow at Wilkins Slough (RM 125) in May 2016.

Figure 5. Sacramento River flow at Wilkins Slough (RM 125) 2008-2016. Circles denote unusually low flows 2014-2016.

Figure 5. Sacramento River flow at Wilkins Slough (RM 125) 2008-2016. Circles denote unusually low flows 2014-2016.

Figure 6. Capture patterns of young Green sturgeon in USFWS traps at Red Bluff 2003-2012.

Figure 6. Capture patterns of young Green sturgeon in USFWS traps at Red Bluff 2003-2012.

Figure 7. Water temperature in the Sacramento River at Wilkins Slough 2008-2016. The Basin Plan objective and the lethal water temperature for young sturgeon of 68°F is depicted with red line.

Figure 7. Water temperature in the Sacramento River at Wilkins Slough 2008-2016. The Basin Plan objective and the lethal water temperature for young sturgeon of 68°F is depicted with red line.

USBR – Increase Shasta Cold Water Releases

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Water Year 2016 on the Sacramento River has been designated a “Below Normal” year.  Water Year 2010 was also a Below Normal year.  Both years followed multiyear droughts.  In both years, Shasta Reservoir was nearly full at the end of April (2010 was 4.4 maf; 2016 was 4.2 maf).  In early May 2010, Keswick releases were 7500 cfs, and release water temperatures were 50-52°F.  In early May 2016, Keswick releases have been 5200-6200 cfs, and release water temperatures have been 53-55°F.

In April and May, 2010, water temperatures in the upper river remained below 56°F.  In contrast, the warmer, lower flows in 2016 have led to excessively warm water temperatures in the upper Sacramento River.  Water temperatures have reached 60-62°F in the upper river (Figure 1), which are well above the prescribed water quality standard of 56°F necessary to protect spawning salmon and sturgeon.  Winter-run salmon began spawning in late April.  Green and white sturgeon spawn in May.

Figure 1. Water temperature in the upper Sacramento River below Shasta Reservoir in early May 2016. In contrast, water temperatures at these locations during early May 2010 were 56°F or lower.

Figure 1. Water temperature in the upper Sacramento River below Shasta Reservoir in early May 2016. In contrast, water temperatures at these locations during early May 2010 were 56°F or lower.

Reclamation’s CVP operations should strive to maintain the 56°F standard through the spring and summer, as prescribed in the Basin Plan and in the NMFS biological opinion for Shasta operations. This temperature can be achieved by increasing Shasta releases or by lowering the water temperature of releases using the temperature control tower/device (TCD) at the dam, or by a combination of these elements. In the last few days, Reclamation has increased releases and has added colder water, resulting in slightly colder Keswick releases (Figure 1). Reclamation has decreased the temperature of releases by opening one the six middle outlets of the Shasta Temperature Control Device (Figure 2). However, downstream temperatures remain high, because air temperatures and water diversions downstream are also increasing.

While there is some logic behind Reclamation’s decision to minimize reservoir releases to save Shasta storage, it is inappropriate to jeopardize endangered fish in the upper Sacramento River with excessively warm water this year, given the abundance of cold water in the reservoir. 1

With Shasta releases expected to increase soon to meet increasing irrigation demands, it will be imperative that water temperatures upstream of Red Bluff remain below 56°F to protect spawning salmon and sturgeon and their young into and through the summer.

The “official” temperature target and control point since April 15, 2016 have been 58°F at Redding (station CCR). In 2010, the target temperature was 56°F, and the control point was at Jellys Ferry (RM 267), 20 miles downstream of Redding. The State Board and NMFS should immediately change the target temperature to 56°F, and move the control point at least downstream to Jellys Ferry. Preferably, the compliance point should be further downstream at Red Bluff, to be in compliance with the NMFS biological opinion (56°F at Red Bluff – RM 243). The Basin Plan puts the compliance point further downstream still, (56°F at Hamilton City – RM 200). 2

Following catastrophic losses of winter-run in the Sacramento below Shasta during the past two years, it is imperative to meet the summer water temperature goals as prescribed in the NMFS biological opinion. The Shasta cold-water pool and storage available are more than adequate to meet these objectives.

Figure 2. Shasta Dam’s temperature control tower/device or TCD has multiple options for releasing water from the reservoir. One middle outlet was recently opened to reduce the temperature of the water released to the Sacramento River. (Source: USBR MidPacific Division)

Figure 2. Shasta Dam’s temperature control tower/device or TCD has multiple options for releasing water from the reservoir. One middle outlet was recently opened to reduce the temperature of the water released to the Sacramento River. (Source: USBR MidPacific Division)

  1. A disproportionate amount of Sacramento River Delta inflow this spring has come from Oroville Reservoir (Feather River) and Folsom Reservoir (American River) storage releases. Excessive use of Folsom storage to meet Bay-Delta needs could lead to loss of its cold-water pool this summer and greater mortality of over-summering juvenile salmon and steelhead in the American River. ↩
  2. A plan for summer operations from Reclamation is due by May 15, 2016 ↩

What’s the Plan, Sam?

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Uncle Sam has the Trinity River Plan together for 2016 (Figure 1). Trinity Reservoir is not full (Figure 2) and may not fill, but it is a Wet water year under the Trinity River Record of Decision, and the fish are going to get a lot of water after the worst two storage years since the reservoir first filled in 1963.

I can’t say the same for the other parts of the Central Valley Project in northern California. Despite the fact that Shasta Reservoir will soon fill (4.5 million acre-feet) and is making flood releases, it is only a “Below Normal” year for the Sacramento Valley. But all the north- of- Delta water contractors will be getting 100% of their water allocations. 1

What will the flows be below Shasta? What will be the flows at Wilkins Slough in Sacramento River in mid-Valley? What will Delta inflows, exports, and outflows be? Will the Delta have a wet June? What will the target water temperatures near Redding this summer be for Winter Run salmon? Will it be a 53°F summer target for the salmon for Red Bluff, or will Water Right Order 90-5 requirements be weakened as they has been over the past four years of drought?

The Sacramento River Plan is due at the end of April. It all hinges on whether Shasta will retain 2.2 million acre-ft of storage by the end of September (it will unless diversion demands are excessive). Will the feds and the state try to weaken the standard again? Will they accept poorer results than 2010 and 2011 (Figure 3)?

Figure 1. Trinity River Restoration Program Homepage.

Figure 1. Trinity River Restoration Program Homepage.

Figure 2. Trinity Lake monthly storage level 1962-2016. (Source: CDEC)

Figure 2. Trinity Lake monthly storage level 1962-2016. (Source: CDEC)

Figure 3. Survival of Winter Run year classes below Shasta Dam from 1996-2015

Figure 3. Survival of Winter Run year classes below Shasta Dam from 1996-2015.2 WR 90-05 water temperature standard for Sacramento River near Red Bluff was weakened during 2012-2015 drought. The severely weakened standard in 2014 and 2015 led to poor survival and virtual loss of two year classes.

Winter Run Salmon have taken the Brunt of Punishment from Reclamation’s Shasta-Trinity Drought Operations – what about 2016?

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In the last two summers, Winter Run salmon production was greatly reduced by Reclamation’s operations of the Shasta-Trinity Division of the Central Valley Project. While the drought brought on the problem and the specific damaging project operations, the damage done was in large part unnecessary. Furthermore, not all the blame should go to Reclamation – the State Water Board and resource agencies who condoned the damaging operations also deserve some of the dis-credit.

I wrote on the subject in some detail in November.1 Resource and management agencies who were responsible for the failure of two year classes of Winter Run continue to blame the drought or demands of water contractors on Shasta-Trinity storage (Figure 1). Soon they will prepare a plan for the coming irrigation season. The plan will depend greatly on present and coming late-winter weather and hydrology. Given that Shasta Reservoir likely will fill this spring, the plan will likely revert to operations similar to those of 2011 and 2012, the last two years when the reservoir filled.

NMFS graphic

Figure 1. NMFS blames the drought.

State Board’s Thoughts

The State Board has been thinking carefully about what to do this summer for Winter Run salmon. 2

  • “With the loss of two out of three cohorts of endangered wild winter-run Chinook salmon (2014 and 2015), it is critical that we develop cold water pool resources in the winter and spring to support temperature management needed later in the year for this third wild winter run Chinook salmon year class.” Comment: irrigation deliveries to Sacramento River Settlement Contractors in April and May of the last two years were a major cause of the loss of the cold-water pool in Shasta. This in turn led to high egg mortality in the upper Sacramento River just below Shasta. While cutting the April and May deliveries would have alleviated the greater part of the problem in both years, it is not all of the problem or solution. Operational changes in the Shasta-Trinity Division could have eliminated many of the problems with little impact to irrigation deliveries, at least in 2015.
  • “These data reflect a 97.9% mortality of winter-run Chinook salmon eggs and fry on the upper Sacramento River in 2015.” Comment: Yes, the excessive water temperatures allowed by the State Board by relaxing their water quality standards caused the nearly complete loss of 2015 Winter Run production.
  • “Shasta operations: Implementation and Exception Procedures for End of September (EOS) Storage of 1.9 MAF or below – As per RPA Action I.2.2.C, if the EOS storage is at or below 1.9 MAF, then Keswick releases shall be managed to improve storage and maintained at 3,250 cfs unless hydrology improves.” Comment: Hydrology in the Central Valley has greatly improved with El Niño, yet releases were kept at 3250 cfs all winter, to the further detriment of the Winter Run, and were only increased well after Shasta exceeded the reservoir level at which Reclamation is supposed to release water to protect against floods. Young salmon need flow pulses to successfully migrate downstream from spawning and rearing areas.
  • “Given the substantial mortality of Sacramento River winter-run Chinook during the egg incubation and emergence periods in BYs 2014 and 2015, there is a need to conservatively manage for protection of the third of three winter-run Chinook cohorts, which will return to spawn upper Sacramento River beginning in summer of 2016. In the coming months, Reclamation and NMFS will be evaluating different actions to balance fishery needs, water supply, and water quality to develop a greater likelihood of protecting juvenile winter-run from BY 2016. As mentioned previously, any proposed action will require the cooperation of senior water rights holders on the Sacramento River and a system-wide operational approach to prioritize cold-water storage and operations at Shasta Lake.” Comment: After the failures in 2014 and 2015, we await the final plan for 2016.
  • “Under any hydrologic exceedence scenarios, there is a need to maximize water storage in Lake Shasta to comply with the December 15, 2015 adopted Order and also increase the likelihood of successfully implementing a water temperature management plan to benefit winter run Chinook salmon. The NMFS has prepared some initial concepts to achieve storage and temperature goals (Attachment 4) (Figure 2). In general, the proposed concept involves flow release as low as 2750 and 3250 until late May or initiation of a water temperature management plan.” Comment: The suggested NMFS improvements (“2016 adjustment”) would be a great benefit, particularly the 53°F DAT (daily average temperature) at Clear Creek in Redding (CCR). Obviously, 53°F would be a substantial improvement over last year’s allowed 58°F. The change is reasonably conservative given the present state of the population. The 55°F 7-day average daily maximum option leaves too much room for error, such as a day of lethal temperatures. Given the circumstances, we can only hope that NMFS recommends the more conservative approach, as it will also greatly help downstream habitat conditions at Balls Ferry and Jellys Ferry, which would further benefit Winter Run.
NMFS temp criteria...

Figure 2. NMFS considerations for the coming summer water temperature standard in the Sacramento River near Redding.

Present Prognosis

Nearly half way through the water year it is safe to say there is a very reasonable chance there will be adequate water resources to save the Winter Run salmon this year. Shasta storage is sharply rising (Figure 3). The reservoir will likely fill this spring for the first time since 2012. The snow pack is also above average.

Graph of Shasta Storage 2010-16

Figure 3. Shasta Reservoir storage water years 2011-2015. (Data source: CDEC)

Recommendations

Reasonable water temperature criteria for 2016 are:

  1. Maximum daily average water temperature in Keswick Reservoir release – 53F.
  2. Maximum daily average water temperature at Red Bluff – 58F.

Both these criteria were achieved in 2011 and 2012 (Figures 4 and 5), the last two years when Shasta Reservoir filled.

Graph of Red Bluff Temps 2011-13

Figure 4. Water temperature (daily average) in Sacramento River at Red Bluff – April 2011 to November 2013.

Graph of Keswick Temps 2011-13

Figure 5. Daily average water temperature of Keswick Reservoir release – April 2011 to March 2013.

More Information

For more information on saving the Winter Run Chinook Salmon in the Sacramento River and Delta see the following sources:

http://deltacouncil.ca.gov/2015-long-term-operations-biological-opinions-annual-science-review-review-materials-supplemental

http://www.westcoast.fisheries.noaa.gov/stories/2015/23_12232015_winter_chinook_math.html

http://mavensnotebook.com/2015/12/15/conserving-chinook-salmon-at-the-southern-end-of-their-range-challenges-and-opportunities/

http://www.westcoast.fisheries.noaa.gov/publications/Central_Valley/Water%20Operations/ Delta%20Operations%20for%20Salmonids%20and%20Sturgeon/ DOSS%20WY2016/2016.02.09_final_doss_notes.pdf

Saving Shasta, Trinity and Klamath Salmon in 2016

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Salmon in the Sacramento, Klamath, and Trinity rivers depend on maintaining cold water releases from Shasta and Trinity reservoirs through the summer and early fall. Major die-offs of salmon on the lower Klamath and lower Sacramento below Shasta have occurred under conditions of low flows and high water temperatures. In summer and fall of dry years, flows and water temperature cannot be maintained if there is too little reservoir storage, especially the cold-water portion in the bottom of the reservoirs.

The biggest overall threat is that one of the reservoirs will run out of cold water in September and October when salmon eggs and embryos are in the gravel spawning beds in the rivers. For Winter Run salmon in the Sacramento, eggs are in the gravel from June through August. For Klamath-Trinity and Sacramento Spring Run salmon, eggs are in the gravel beginning in September or October; Fall Run eggs in each river are in the gravel beginning in November. In addition to the high water temperatures that can kill any of the eggs, flow reductions in the Sacramento in September and October can also dewater spawning beds after initial spawning in higher flows has occurred.

Government agencies have typically blamed large scale mortality events on the more than a decade-long series of droughts and competition between irrigation demands and water for salmon. But better water management of the Shasta and Trinity divisions of the Central Valley Project by the Bureau of Reclamation and other federal and state agencies can reduce mortality. Massive salmon die-offs in the Klamath, such as the one that occurred in 2002, have been avoided by targeted late summer and early fall cold-water releases from Trinity Reservoir during the past two multiyear droughts. However, failures of the 2014 and 2015 Winter Run broods below Shasta on the Sacramento River were not avoided.

Salmon runs continue to decline during droughts, with hatcheries making up a greater proportion of the runs in both river systems. On the Trinity, wild Spring and Fall Run salmon are at only 32% and 17%, respectively, of restoration program goals.1 All the Sacramento runs are down, especially the Winter Run, and prognosis for future years is poor based on broodyear failure the past two years. Ocean stocks of Klamath-Trinity and Central Valley salmon are also down this year, which will likely lead to severe sport and commercial fishery restrictions.2

So what measures are in the works for 2016 for protecting salmon? Depending on what precipitation falls in the remainder of winter and this spring, there has been speculation of further restrictions on irrigation deliveries and water supplies, and the allocation of more colder water below the dams for salmon.

In addition to the many actions I identified in previous posts,3 there are several further options that should be considered for 2016 to benefit salmon:

  1. The Klamath-Trinity system should get more emphasis because of potential risks to its salmon, and because it has not fared as well as the Sacramento system in the latest multiyear drought. Shasta Reservoir has reached 60% of capacity as of 1 March (Figure 1). Trinity Reservoir has reached only 40% (Figure 2). This summer, less water could be delivered to the Sacramento River from Trinity Reservoir via Whiskeytown Reservoir to the Sacramento River below Shasta Reservoir than last summer (Figure 3). Water delivered through Whiskeytown is warmer than water delivered from Shasta; reducing deliveries through Whiskeytown would thus save Trinity storage and the cold-water pool supplies in both Trinity and Shasta reservoirs.
  2. Increasing the relative contribution of Trinity Reservoir to the Sacramento River in April and May (and reducing the summer contribution) would save the cold-water pool supplies in both Trinity and Shasta reservoirs. April-May releases from Whiskeytown Reservoir to the Sacramento River below Shasta are colder (<53°F) than the summer releases (58-59°F) (Figure 4) that threaten Winter Run salmon.
  3. Reducing hydropeaking power production during summer would reduce the demands on the cold-water pools. Much of the water released from Shasta, Trinity, and Whiskeytown reservoirs in summer is released in the hot afternoon hours for hydropower production peak demands, leading to warmer waters in Keswick and Lewiston reservoirs. To ensure water that released from these two reservoirs is not too warm for salmon in the rivers below, Bureau of Reclamation operators should optimize daily water deliveries through powerhouses for water temperatures rather than for the value of power.
Figure 1. Shasta Reservoir storage March 2014 to March 2016. (Capacity is 4,552,000 AF.)

Figure 1. Shasta Reservoir storage March 2014 to March 2016. (Capacity is 4,552,000 AF.)

Figure 2. Trinity Reservoir storage March 2014 to March 2016. (Capacity is 2,447,650 AF.)

Figure 2. Trinity Reservoir storage March 2014 to March 2016. (Capacity is 2,447,650 AF.)

Figure 3. Water deliveries to Whiskeytown Reservoir from Trinity Reservoir via Lewiston Reservoir outlet to Carr powerhouse March 2014 to March 2015. Water then proceeds to Keswick Reservoir immediately below Shasta Reservoir on the Sacramento River. Approximately 100-200 cfs of these flows is also released to Clear Creek, which flows into the Sacramento River below Redding.

Figure 3. Water deliveries to Whiskeytown Reservoir from Trinity Reservoir via Lewiston Reservoir outlet to Carr powerhouse March 2014 to March 2016. Water then proceeds to Keswick Reservoir immediately below Shasta Reservoir on the Sacramento River. Approximately 100-200 cfs of these flows is also released to Clear Creek, which flows into the Sacramento River below Redding.

Figure 4. Water temperature in Spring Creek Powerhouse June to September 2015.

Figure 4. Water temperature in Spring Creek Powerhouse June to September 2015.