Are Striped Bass about to make a comeback?

Unlike most of the Central Valley native fishes including salmon and smelt, striped bass have an inherent natural advantage or resilience: they are long-lived, have ten or more spawning year-classes in any spawning year, and produce a thousand times more eggs per female. This advantage has come into play after a decade of drought: in the spring of 2016, there are optimal spawning and early rearing conditions for striped bass.

The late April 20-mm Survey results indicate a possible strong year class for stripers compared to recent years. The distribution of larvae in late April 2016 (Figure 1) is the product of moderate normal year Delta outflow with low Delta exports. The 2016 distribution is a dramatic improvement over the critically dry year 2015 (Figure 2), the drought-year 2009 (Figure 3), and also the normal year 2010 (Figure 4).

Normal water year spring Delta outflows that place the Low-Salinity-Zone westward in Suisun Bay, combined with a strong spring plankton bloom, bode well for the growth and survival of young stripers. In contrast, conditions were poor in 2015, when young stripers were confined to the Delta under low Delta outflows and low productivity, and were subject to Delta exports and diversions (Figure 2). Chances of a comeback in the fall-index (Figure 5) remain to be seen, given the lack of summer Delta protections since 1995 under the existing Delta Water Quality Control Plan. Expected high summer exports and low Delta outflows, such as those in normal water year 2010 (the record low fall-index year), may yet preclude a comeback.

Figure 1. Striped bass larvae density distribution in 20-mm Survey #4, Apr 25-28, 2016.

Figure 1. Striped bass larvae density distribution in 20-mm Survey #4, Apr 25-28, 2016.

Figure 2. Striped bass larvae density distribution in 20-mm Survey #4, Apr 27-30, 2015.

Figure 2. Striped bass larvae density distribution in 20-mm Survey #4, Apr 27-30, 2015.

Figure 3. Striped bass larvae density distribution in 20-mm Survey #4, Apr 20-24, 2009.

Figure 3. Striped bass larvae density distribution in 20-mm Survey #4, Apr 20-24, 2009.

Figure 4. Striped bass larvae density distribution in 20-mm Survey #4, Apr 26-29, 2010.

Figure 4. Striped bass larvae density distribution in 20-mm Survey #4, Apr 26-29, 2010.

Figure 5. Striped bass fall index of young striped bass 1967-2013. Not shown are the near record low indices in 2014 and 2015 (59 and 52, respectively).

Figure 5. Striped bass fall index of young striped bass 1967-2013. Not shown are the near record low indices in 2014 and 2015 (59 and 52, respectively).

Puget Sound Salmon Fishing – Closed Until Further Notice

For the first time in almost 30 years, there may be no salmon fishing in Puget Sound in 2016.  Several reasons are apparent for this situation.  First, the Coho salmon returns this year are projected to be very poor as a result of unfavorable ocean conditions and the drought in many Washington streams that occurred last year.  The projected returns of adult Coho salmon are very low (particularly for non-hatchery or wild fish that are listed as “threatened” under the Endangered Species Act).  There are also concerns about low returns of wild Chinook salmon.

Seasons in Washington are set on an annual basis by the co-managers of the resource.  These co-managers are the Washington Department of Fisheries (WDFW), which represents the non-Indian sport and commercial fishermen on one side and the Indian tribes in Puget Sound, which represent the interests of about 20 different tribes.  This co-management approach evolved after the Judge Boldt decision in 1974 that established the 50/50 split on harvest between the two entities.  Initially, the court system set regulations, but the co-management approach evolved shortly thereafter to let the resource managers set the seasons rather than the court system.

Under the co-management process, seasons have been negotiated and set in the early spring each year.  The co-managers meet, present their positions based on the information each has (including models of the fish returns), discussions are conducted, and the seasons are mutually agreed upon.  These negotiated regulations are then forwarded to the North Pacific Fisheries Management Council, which then provides final review and approval.  Then the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issues permits for the seasons.

This process has worked in finalizing the seasons, until this year.  When the co-managers first met in late April, the WDFW proposed a restricted season that would allow a “selective fishery” for hatchery Chinook salmon along with possible fishing for hatchery Coho.  (Hatchery fish are marked by the removal of their adipose fin).  The Tribes, however, proposed a total closure for all salmon fishing in Puget Sound to protect wild Coho and all Chinook salmon.

In the first two meetings, the co-managers showed no movement toward an agreement on the Puget Sound situation.  (However, agreement was reached on seasons for the Columbia River and the outer coast of Washington and included severely restricted quotas accompanied with selective fishing for marked fish.)   WDFW walked out of the meetings regarding Puget Sound.   Although the two sides have been in further discussion, as of this date – May 19 – no agreement has been made.

To further complicate the situation, WDFW and the Tribes have decided to submit separate proposals to the NOAA in order to obtain separate permits for their proposed seasons.  (NOAA issues the final permits as part of the Endangered Species Act).  NOAA’s response to this has been “WDFW and the Tribes must come to agreement with NOAA offering assistance to the process, but it will not make a decision on the proposals”.  To process these permit submittals, NOAA has estimated that the Tribal proposal (which does include some limited fishing in some isolated situations) could possibly be processed in time for this co-manager’s reduced seasons to go forward.  However, NOAA has indicated that the WDFW proposal could be lengthy (due to the need for public review and comment) and likely could not be processed this year.

In general, the salmon seasons for both Tribal and non-Tribal fishermen in Puget Sound have been severely reduced over the past several decades as a result of lower returns resulting from habitat losses, dramatic increases in predators (birds, seals, sea lions, etc.), and the 50/50 split with the Indian Tribes.  If no agreement can be reached in the next few weeks, there will be no sport/commercial fishing for Puget Sound salmon in 2016.  This outcome will likely result in major regional economic impacts (a sporting goods store has already closed).  There are about 200,000 salmon anglers that have held licenses in the Puget Sound region.  If the closures continue, these fishermen would have no opportunity to fish for salmon in the Puget Sound basin – only ardent fishermen will likely travel to the coastal ports of Washington or the Columbia River to participate in their sport.

In a related development, the WDFW has closed all fishing (all species) in all Puget Sound streams, rivers, and lakes accessible to Coho or Chinook salmon.  These closures include large lakes such as Lake Washington where there is a popular fishery for bass and other warm water species.  In addition, the summer-run steelhead season, another very popular fishery in many Puget Sound streams, usually opens in early June (which is only a few weeks from this date).  This fishery is also destined to remain closed if no agreement can be reached.

Although NOAA has been the Federal agency that was presumed to issue the final permits for the Tribal and the non-Tribal sport/commercial fisheries, much to the surprise of many fishermen and non-fishermen, the Bureau of Indian Affairs approved a separate permit for a limited Tribal fishery for spring Chinook salmon in the Skagit River (a major tributary of Puget Sound).  The fishery was conducted and resulted in several demonstrations by non-Tribal fishermen, both on the Skagit River and at the state capitol in Olympia.

Most of the Tribes favor some type of agreement.  However, two of the Tribes do not favor any agreement except no fishing.  This has complicated the entire negotiation process because all Tribes in the co-management process must agree to the final regulations before they can be submitted for approval.

As a result of this convoluted process, the likelihood of a salmon fishery in Puget Sound this year is clearly in doubt.  Many of the non-Tribal fishermen believe the current negotiation process needs to be overhauled.

Rare Bay-Delta Spring Bloom may benefit Smelt

A rare Bay-Delta spring plankton bloom in 2016 may benefit longfin and Delta smelt (and other fish).  The bloom (a condition in which chlorophyll concentrations consistently exceed 10 micrograms per liter of water) commenced in late April.  Geographically, it extended from Suisun Bay up into the Delta to Rio Vista on the Sacramento River and to near Stockton on the San Joaquin River (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Bay-Delta phytoplankton bloom late-April to mid-May 2016. Plots show chlorophyll concentrations at selected stations from mid-April to mid-May. Source: CDEC.

Figure 1. Bay-Delta phytoplankton bloom late-April to mid-May 2016. Plots show chlorophyll concentrations at selected stations from mid-April to mid-May. Source: CDEC.

The bloom coincided with a drop in previously high early spring Delta inflow and outflow, as well as with low exports and the implementation of San Joaquin River pulse flows.1 Delta outflows were moderate, relatively steady, and higher than in recent drought years, and consistent with a “normal“ year pattern (Figure 2). San Joaquin River pulse flows occurred after mid-April (Figure 3). The Low Salinity Zone or LSZ (0.5-6 ppt) was located in Suisun Bay. X2 (2 ppt) migrated with the tides from Honkers Bay (northwest of MAL) to Sherman Island (northeast of ANH) within eastern Suisun Bay. The head of the LSZ (500-1000 EC) and the bloom extended upstream to Rio Vista on high tides (Figures 4 and 5). Water quality standards (D-1641) that require 14-day average X2 to be at Chipps Island (MAL) or further west helped to ensure consistent Delta outflow.

Longfin smelt concentrated near X2 and may benefit from plankton bloom (Figure 6). Remaining Delta smelt may also benefit as they too concentrate near X2. Maintaining the LSZ and X2 in Suisun Bay is generally thought to promote Bay-Delta productivity and higher smelt survival. In the past four years of drought, the LSZ and X2 during spring and summer have generally been upstream of Suisun Bay, in the Delta.

Figure 2. Delta outflow mid-April to mid-May 2016. Source: CDEC.

Figure 2. Delta outflow mid-April to mid-May 2016. Source: CDEC.

Figure 3. San Joaquin River inflow to the Delta at Mossdale April-May 2016. Source: CDEC.

Figure 3. San Joaquin River inflow to the Delta at Mossdale April-May 2016. Source: CDEC.

Figure 4. Bottom salinity in Sacramento River several miles downstream of Rio Vista in early May 2016. Source: CDEC.

Figure 4. Bottom salinity in Sacramento River several miles downstream of Rio Vista in early May 2016. Source: CDEC.

Figure 5. Chlorophyll concentrations at Rio Vista in early May 2016. Source: CDEC

Figure 5. Chlorophyll concentrations at Rio Vista in early May 2016. Source: CDEC

Figure 6. Catch distribution of young Longfin smelt in late April 2016 along with extent of plankton bloom (red boundary). Smelt were concentrated (larger green dots) near X2 in central and eastern Suisun Bay. Source: CDFW 20-mm Survey.

Figure 6. Catch distribution of young Longfin smelt in late April 2016 along with extent of plankton bloom (red boundary). Smelt were concentrated (larger green dots) near X2 in central and eastern Suisun Bay. Source: CDFW 20-mm Survey.

  1. The bloom also occurred after a winter of moderate Yolo Bypass flood spills that may have contributed nutrients to fuel the bloom. Elevated Bypass flows continued through mid-April.

Hatcheries Release Salmon Smolts into Low Flows and Warm Water – April and early May, 2016

April 13. CBS San Francisco reports:

The federal government is funding the release of millions of Baby Chinook salmon into Battle Creek at the Coleman Federal Hatchery outside Red Bluff. Brett Galyean, deputy project leader at Coleman Federal Hatchery, said, “It’s a big day. It’s the first time in two years that we were able to release all the fish on station…. Because of the drought the last two years, the environmental conditions in the Sacramento River — warm water, low flow — caused us to truck fish.”… However, of the 12 million fish released, only one percent are expected to return to Battle Creek in three years to spawn.

April 29. Recent fishing report states:

This spring’s striper fishing on the Sacramento River has been going very well with daily limits of large Sacramento River striped bass. Most of the action has been from Colusa downriver through Verona as the Sacramento River is very low due to minimal releases from Keswick Dam and high volumes of irrigation pumping from the lower Sacramento River. Stripers mostly 18 to 24 inches are coming in daily with some very large female stripers 15 to 25 pounds coming in as well. Drifting live jumbo minnows has been working best in the daytime while black worms or white swim baits are working at night. The Coleman National Fish Hatchery has released the remaining 6 million fall-run juvenile salmon smolt into the Sacramento River. With low flows coupled with the massive irrigation pumping, the lower Sacramento River from Butte City downriver through Verona is extremely low, leaving exposed sand and gravel bars across the river. This is setting the stage for an incredible striper fishing as the smolts arrive in the lower Sacramento River. Striper fishing should be incredible as the stripers feed day and night on the hatchery salmon smolt just like last month when the first round of hatchery Sacramento River salmon smolt were released. Sacramento fishing.com fishing guide Dave Jacobs has witnessed countless striper boils as the spawning stripers have fed around the clock on the salmon smolts from Butte City downriver through Verona.

May 1. Yet another fishing report notes:

The striper action has been incredible for the past several weeks. While many of the stripers are post spawn they are hanging out and destroying recent salmon plants coming out of the hatcheries…. Before the past weekend, he found great action on the Feather River, but heavy boat traffic over the weekend slowed down the Feather since an armada showed up. Salmon smolts were released in the Feather this past week, and the combination of low flows and clear water made for a killing zone for the smolts…. The bite lasted until most of the baby salmon made it to the Sacramento River, and I was able to follow them down the Sacramento a couple of miles until the fishing got tough…. The California Department Fish and Wildlife hatchery on the Feather river is planning on releasing their final stock of 1 million into the Feather river instead of trucking them around the river and Delta pumps to the Suisun Bay. The Federal hatchery on Battle creek released 4 plus million salmon fry this past week and will dumping an additional 1.9 million fall run fish into Battle Creek this coming Friday. The is [sic] opposed to these releases due to the current lower flows and clear water. With high numbers of spawning stripers and low / clear flows most of these fish will never make it as far as Sacramento. Past studies have shown that 94% of hatchery salmon released on the upper Sac never make it to San Pablo bay in these conditions.

May 2. SacBee Fishing continues the theme:

SACRAMENTO RIVER, Red Bluff to Colusa – Salmon smolts have been released from Coleman National Fish Hatchery, and are expected to fuel a hot striper bite from Butte City to Verona. The river is dropping, which caused many of the stripers to drop downstream last week. Anglers now expect stripers to move upriver to feed on the salmon smolts.

Sacramento River Conditions

The Sacramento River water quality Basin Plan objective requires no water temperature greater than 56°F upstream of Hamilton City and no temperature greater than 68°F upstream of Sacramento. Water temperature Red Bluff (upstream of Hamilton City) has already reached a daily average of 62°F, well above the required limit (and this with Shasta full of cold water). Water temperatures below Hamilton City have reached 69°F (at Wilkins Slough). Downstream-migrating smolts are stressed and more vulnerable to predation as water temperatures approach 60°F, yet managers continue to release hatchery smolts from the Battle Creek and Feather River hatcheries. Adult winter-run and spring-run Chinook salmon, now migrating upstream in the Sacramento River, are also being stressed by water temperatures greater than 65°F. The 60-65°F range is optimal for striped bass feeding and metabolism. ARE THE HATCHERY SMOLTS SIMPLY CHUM FOR STRIPERS???

Sac at Red Bluff

Salmon Fishermen Protest

The Golden Gate Salmon Association1 and other sport fishing and commercial salmon organizations are protesting the release of Feather River Fish Hatchery salmon smolts into the Feather River near Marysville. In 2016, all four major salmon hatcheries are releasing most of their fall-run salmon smolts into the rivers near the hatcheries. In the drier (and some wet) years of the past two decades, many hatchery smolts have been trucked to the Bay or west Delta and released there after holding in acclimation pens. With higher water releases in this wetter year, hatcheries will now depend on the smolts reaching the Golden Gate in the higher river flows (Sacramento 4500 cfs, Feather 3000 cfs, and American 3000 cfs).

Federal and State fisheries scientists continue to believe it is better to release the fall-run hatchery smolts in the rivers to reduce straying. This logic for this poor management strategy is weak, for the following reasons:

  1. The fall-run stocks are all of the same genetic makeup. Many runs, including those to the San Joaquin tributaries, depend heavily on hatchery fish that have strayed from other rivers. To think that high stray rates of fall-run is the paramount problem is simply crazy. In my own carcass surveys on the Yuba River (no hatchery) and the Cosumnes River (no dam or hatchery), almost all the fall-run were hatchery strays.
  2. Trucking the smolts to the Bay increases survival and fishable stocks in the rivers and the ocean 5 to 10 fold. The socio-economic benefits of salmon fishing depend almost entirely on trucking smolts. Without trucking, ocean and river fisheries will be closed, as occurred during the past decade.
  3. Releasing the smolts in rivers in late April and May is a waste of the resource because only a few percent reach the Golden Gate, compared with 99% that are trucked or barged. The rivers are too warm, even with this year’s higher flows. The Delta remains a black hole for hatchery smolts. Predators are much more active in spring than in the winter, when fall-run naturally migrate through the Bay and Delta. Feather River fall-run hatchery fry stocked in Yolo Bypass rice fields at the beginning of February smolted and emigrated by the first of March.
  4. Releasing smolts in the rivers only encourages and benefits predators, training them to feast in rivers on salmon rather than other normal prey, and increasing growth and survival of predators including birds, striped bass, pikeminnow, and black bass. Stripers now leave their normal habitats in the Bay and Delta for the feast in the rivers. Spawning stripers stay longer in the rivers, feeding on the smolt bounty. A recent video from the Feather River near the hatchery smolt release site shows stripers feeding on hatchery smolts, visual evidence of the negative aspects of the strategy.2 It does not take fishermen long to catch on either.3
  5. The hatchery smolts, including millions of steelhead yearlings, compete with and prey upon wild salmon and steelhead juveniles. The wild late-fall-run salmon in the Sacramento River and all the wild steelhead in the Central Valley rivers are all small fry in spring, and are tasty morsels for the big hatchery smolts.

If straying is such a concern of federal and state fisheries scientists, then why not barge the smolts from the rivers, through the Delta to the Golden Gate, as I have previously suggested?4 Otherwise these scientists should stop wasting tax dollars and license fees of California sport fishermen in the bad practice of releasing hatchery smolts in Central Valley rivers. Furthermore, federal, state and other biologists should quit blaming the problem on stripers that have been around for over a hundred years. Stripers are not as stupid as this hatchery strategy is.