In my last update on winter-run salmon on November 4, 2026, I related what appeared to be a decline in winter-run fry production in 2026 compared to 2025.  Spawner numbers were down more than 50% from 2025 (Figure 1) but up from the drought-depleted runs of 2023 and 2024. Red Bluff trap survey numbers were down about half as well (Figure 2 and 3), but again markedly higher than the drought-depleted numbers of 2023 and 2024.  Of greatest concern was the low numbers of juvenile salmon reaching the lower Sacramento River one-hundred miles downstream of Red Bluff (see Figures 2 and 3) – that remains a concern. Numbers sampled in surveys near Sacramento remain near zero compared to significant numbers collected in 2025 in November (Figure 4).

I had five recommendations in the earlier post to improve downstream movement and survival to and through the Delta.  Here is scorecard of implementation to date:

• Increasing the daily average lower Sacramento River streamflow through the fall to at least 7000 cfs at Wilkins Slough and 12,000 cfs at Freeport. – unchanged at 5000 cfs and 8,000 cfs, respectively.
• Providing a late fall pulse flow from Shasta Reservoir to the upper Sacramento River. Yet to occur.
• Minimizing fall Delta exports (no higher than 5000 cfs or 35% of Delta Inflow). Yes – remained so.
• Maintaining fall and winter Delta outflow at 10,000 cfs. Remains below 6,000 cfs.

Closing the Delta Cross Channel for the remainder of fall. Remains open four days per week (normal operation through December).

These factors may change with storms over the next week.

Figure 1. Winter-run salmon escapement 1970-2026.

Figure 2. Screw trap catch of juvenile winter-run salmon at Red Bluff (RM 240) and Tisdale Weir (RM 120) 8/27/2025-5/8, 2026.

Figure 3. Screw trap catch of juvenile winter-run salmon at Red Bluff (RM 240) and Tisdale Weir (RM 120) 8/27-11/8, 2026.

Figure 4. Seine and trawl catch of juvenile winter-run salmon near Sacramento (RM 80) 8/5/2025 to 7/30-2026.